Will U.S. Interest Rates Stay Unchanged?

According to prediction markets (Polymarket), the probability that the Fed will not cut rates at its January meeting has risen to 99%.

👉 The chance of a 25 basis point cut has dropped below 1%

👉 More aggressive cuts (50+ bps) are almost completely off the table

Why do markets think this way?

👉 Inflation is still above the Fed’s target

👉 Fed officials continue to emphasize a “wait-and-see” approach

If rates are kept unchanged, the market’s focus will likely shift to the March meeting and beyond. Expectations for a rapid rally in risk assets (crypto & equities) could weaken in the short term.