The chart technical analysis (daily level) shows the daily candlestick chart of BTCUSDT (time range roughly covering early to mid-January 2026), with the current price at 87,826.4 USDT, a 24-hour decline of 1.50%. Key technical indicators are as follows: Bollinger Bands (BOLL 20,2): Upper Band 97,193.5, Middle Band 91,896.9, Lower Band 86,600.3. The price is close to the lower band (currently only about 1,200 points above), and a typical rebound is likely after touching the band, but if it breaks below the lower band with increased volume, the downside potential will further open up.
Moving Average System: MA5 (103,624) and MA10 (101,720) are significantly above the current price, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement, indicating that the medium-term trend is bearish. If the price cannot quickly recover the mid-track around 91,900 in the short term, it will continue to face pressure.
RSI(6): 24.1, has entered a severely oversold area (below 30). Historically, when RSI touches the 20-25 range, it is often accompanied by a short-term rebound. The current level of overselling is high, increasing the probability of a rebound.
MACD: DIF -403.8, DEA 300.8, histogram -704.7. After the death cross, the histogram continues to expand, showing strong downward momentum, but the histogram has begun to narrow, indicating weakening momentum.
Trading volume: During the decline, trading volume increased (Vol 48,562 BTC), showing significant selling pressure; recently, trading volume has slightly shrunk, and selling power may be exhausting.
Candlestick pattern: Since the high point near 97,932 at the beginning of January, continuous bearish candles have emerged, with several large bearish candles. Recently, support has formed in the 87,000-88,000 range, but there has not yet been a clear signal to stop the decline.
Technical conclusion: Extremely oversold in the short term + close to the lower Bollinger band, indicating a strong technical rebound demand. The initial rebound target is the middle band 91,900-92,000, and further can look at the previous high point platform of 95,000-97,000. If the rebound fails and drops below the lower band of 86,600, it may test 84,000-85,000. Overall, it is still in a high-level correction channel, with a medium-term trend biased toward oscillation downwards. Combined with the current international news dynamics (around January 25, 2026), the real-time price is highly consistent with the image, with current BTC fluctuating around the 88,000-89,000 USD range, down about 10% from the high point of 97,000+ on January 15.
Recent major news and market sentiment: Short-term pressure sources: Macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies (including tariff risks, Federal Reserve policy expectations, global stock and gold strength), leading to funds flowing out of high-risk assets. Bitcoin has performed poorly compared to gold and the stock market, and the potential threat of quantum computing has been mentioned again, raising concerns among some investors.
The market's expectation of a rapid breakthrough of 100k in early 2026 is relatively low, but the medium-term upside potential is still viewed positively (some forecasts point to 180k).
Comprehensive trend judgment: Short term (1-2 weeks): Oversold + lower band support, high probability of rebound. Target 91,000-95,000; if it can stabilize on the middle band with increased volume, it can be seen as a short-term stop-loss signal. Risk point: If negative macro news continues to ferment (such as gold continuing to rise sharply), it may quickly test 85,000.
Medium-term (1-3 months): There is a high probability of maintaining a large oscillation range of 85,000-97,000, and it is necessary to observe whether it can effectively break through the resistance area of 95,000-97,000. Current bear market signals still dominate, but oversold rebounds can provide buying opportunities.
Long-term (2026 full year): The fundamentals are generally positive, with institutions and influencers optimistic about the 'super cycle.' If the macro environment stabilizes (interest rates decline, risk assets recover), there is still significant upside potential.
Advice: In the short term, focus on rebound buying opportunities, with a stop loss set below 86,000; in the medium to long term, primarily hold or gradually build positions while closely monitoring macro news and the gains and losses around the 90,000 integer mark. Investment carries risks; please operate cautiously based on your own situation.#达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 #下任美联储主席会是谁？ $BTC
