The human world has a smoke and fire vibe, which soothes the hearts of ordinary people.

Compared to the fluctuating numbers in the account, this bowl of warm pork rib soup is the real 'safe haven' tonight.

I just took a glance at the market, $ETH fluctuating around 2940.

Many friends ask: Is the market going to change since it's so stable on Sunday night?

After being in this circle for a long time, you need to understand the logic behind 'stillness'.

The calmness on Sunday night is often due to a lack of liquidity.

In other words, the current market is very light.

With just a small amount of capital, one can pull out an enticing bullish line or smash out a panic bearish line.

At this time, the K-line has a high degree of distortion.

Let’s objectively analyze the current structure:

1. Upper pressure: A solid wall.
Looking upwards, a large amount of concentrated trading area has accumulated in the 2980 - 3000 range.
Without major positive stimuli over the weekend, relying on the current liquidity, is it possible to break through this selling pressure zone at once? The difficulty is extreme.

2. Lower support: Teetering.
Looking down, 2864 (previous low) is currently the only effective defensive position.
The current price is 2935, just a step away from the previous low.
Once the integer level of 2900 is lost, the downward pull will accelerate instantly.

Chasing long positions at this time has a very poor risk-reward ratio.
Because the space above is locked, the abyss below is very close.

My suggestion (for reference only):

  • Waiting is the best strategy: Sunday has poor liquidity and many false moves, not trading is the best defense.

  • If you must operate: follow the bearish trend of the larger cycle.

Reference points:

  • Entry logic: Assume that the main force is testing upwards with low liquidity, touching the pressure zone of 2980 - 2995, and the volume cannot expand.

  • Action: Lightly short.

  • Risk control (stop-loss): 3035.

    • Note: If it stabilizes above 3035 with increased volume, it indicates a market structure reversal, and one must exit unconditionally, acknowledging the strength of the bulls.

  • Target: First target 2888, if it breaks, look at 2835.

Trading is not gambling; it is about handling probabilities.
Tonight’s probabilities indicate: the cost of a bullish attack is too high, while the cost of a bearish defense is very low.

Still the same:
The main force may deceive, but the trading volume and pressure levels will not.

Rest early, the results will be clear on Monday morning.#ETH走势分析 #加密市场回调