1. Core Conclusions of the Trend
1. Overall Pattern
• Large Cycle (1 hour): Bearish dominant downtrend. The price has continued to retreat from the high of 0.4450, with MA7/25/99 showing a bearish arrangement (short-term moving averages crossing below long-term moving averages). MACD is below the zero axis (DIF=-0.00200, DEA=-0.00127), indicating that the mid-term downward momentum has not fully exhausted; the 24h decline is about 6.8%, and the price is oscillating around 0.21, at a relatively low level recently.
• Small Cycle (1 minute): Short-term oversold rebound. The price quickly rebounded after reaching 0.20919, with MA7 (0.21157) turning upwards, and MACD forming a low-level golden cross (DIF=-0.00020, DEA=-0.00031, MACD=0.00011). Trading volume has moderately increased, indicating short-term capital is bottom-fishing, but the rebound strength is constrained by the 1-hour moving average.
Key Support/Resistance:
Support: 0.2090 (recent 1-minute low), 0.2057 (24h low);
Resistance: 0.2130 (1-minute MA25), 0.2190 (1-hour consolidation platform), 0.2339 (24h high).
2. Trading Strategy
General Principle of Strategy
Light position testing, strict stop loss, mainly follow the trend, prioritize relying on big-cycle bearish trends, short during small-cycle rebounds; if key resistance is broken, switch to rebound longing strategy.
1. Short-term Daily Strategy (1-minute cycle, suitable for ultra-short-term trading)
(1) Shorting Opportunity (Preferred Choice)
• Entry Condition: Price rebounds to the 0.2125-0.2130 range (1-minute MA25 + 1-hour MA7 resistance), and 1-minute MACD red bars shorten/top divergence, volume decreases;
• Entry Price: 0.2128 (build position in batches, first 60% position, if rebounds to 0.2135 add 40%);
Stop Loss: 0.2140 (above recent 1-minute rebound high, stop loss approximately 0.5%);
Take Profit:
First Target: 0.2100 (1-minute moving average support, profit approximately 1.3%);
Second Target: 0.2090 (recent low, profit approximately 1.8%), reduce position by 50% after reaching, remaining position looks to 0.2057 (24h low).
(2) Longing Opportunity (Only for Oversold Rebounds, participate with caution)
Entry Condition: Price retraces to the 0.2095-0.2100 range (1-minute MA7 support + near recent low), MACD green bars shorten/bottom divergence, volume increases;
Entry Price: 0.2098;
Stop Loss: 0.2088 (below recent low, stop loss approximately 0.5%);
Take Profit: 0.2120 (1-minute MA25 resistance, profit approximately 1.1%), do not cling to positions, close immediately upon reaching.
2. Medium-term Swing Strategy (1-hour cycle, suitable for holding 1-3 days)
Entry Condition: 1-hour MACD death cross continues, price rebounds to the 0.2190-0.2200 range (1-hour consolidation platform + MA25 resistance), and volume does not show significant increase;
Entry Price: 0.2195;
Stop Loss: 0.2230 (below 24h high, stop loss approximately 1.6%);
Take Profit:
First Target: 0.2100 (medium-term support, profit approximately 4.3%);
Second Target: 0.2000 (Integer level below, profit approximately 8.9%), take profit in batches based on position size.
3. Risk Control (Core)
1. Position Management: Perpetual contract leverage recommended ≤5 times, short-term single position not exceeding 10% of total capital, medium-term single position not exceeding 20%;
2. Stop Loss Must Be Set: Any entry must have a stop loss to avoid extreme market conditions causing liquidation;
3. Trend Reversal Response: If 1-hour price effectively breaks through 0.2230 (24h high), and MACD golden cross crosses above the zero axis, immediately close short positions, switch to light long positions (stop loss 0.2200)
Current AIA is in a medium-term downtrend, short-term rebound pattern, focus on shorting during rebounds, longing only for oversold recovery; for medium-term, wait for a rebound to key resistance before placing short positions. The core is to use small-cycle signals to find entry points, big-cycle signals to determine direction, strictly execute stop losses and position control, and avoid heavy positions against the trend.
