$BTC | Trump’s 100% Tariff Threat Could Hit Canada Hard
Trump’s warning to Canada isn’t random — it’s a pressure move aimed indirectly at China. His concern is that if Canada signs a special trade deal with Beijing, Chinese products could enter the U.S. through Canada, avoiding U.S. tariffs. In that scenario, Canada becomes a backdoor route, weakening U.S. trade protections.
The leverage is massive. About 75–76% of Canada’s exports go to the U.S., worth over $450B per year. A 100% tariff would instantly price Canadian goods out of the U.S. market. History shows the risk: during 2018–2019, tariffs of just 10–25% caused Canadian steel exports to drop 41% and aluminum 19%, disrupting $16.6B CAD in trade and leading to job losses.
Now scale that to 100%. Key sectors like autos, energy, steel, and aluminum would be severely impacted. While Canada is trying to diversify by strengthening trade with China — especially in agriculture, EVs, and batteries — the move makes economic sense but carries major political risk.
