BlackRock veteran Rick Rieder's probability has surged to 60%, potentially making him the most knowledgeable central bank governor on 'on-chain assets' in history.
Election dynamics shift: On January 24, 2026, prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) indicate that the probability of BlackRock's global fixed income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder replacing Powell has jumped from 3% at the beginning of the month to 59.9%, surpassing former board member Kevin Warsh.
Trump's 'preference': Trump publicly stated after the Davos interview that Rieder was 'impressive.' Rieder's advantage lies in his identity as a Wall Street veteran, making it easier to gain congressional approval, and his proposal for a 'gradual rate cut to a 3% neutral level' highly aligns with Trump's quantitative easing logic.
RWA and ETH's 'dimensionality reduction' benefits:
RWA (Real World Assets on-chain): As one of the driving forces behind BlackRock's RWA product BUIDL, if Rieder leads the Federal Reserve, it is expected that the tokenization of assets such as U.S. Treasuries will accelerate within a compliant framework, significantly reducing regulatory friction between banks and DeFi.
The monetary attributes of ETH: The market believes that Rieder's inclusivity regarding 'non-traditional' monetary policy will lead to Ethereum's position as an RWA settlement layer being officially acknowledged.
Timeline: Trump stated that the interview has concluded, with the final candidate expected to be announced as early as next week (end of January).
