In the next 5 years, the destiny of 1.4 billion people in China will be completely rewritten by a document that 99% of people are still unaware of, and this document is the 14th Five-Year Plan.
The typical reaction of an ordinary person to this news is, 'Oh, I see,' and then they go on with their lives. But what they don't know is that this document has already secretly marked the development trajectory for each individual for the next 5 years—whether your salary will increase, whether you will lose your job, whether your down payment for a house will be sufficient, what schools your children can attend, and even how much pension you will receive each month when you are old... All these matters that seem to be decided by you have actually been arranged by an 'invisible hand' long ago.
This hand is the national five-year plan.
Many people think that the five-year plan is a government matter and has nothing to do with ordinary people. This idea is completely wrong. When the new China was established in 1949, the per capita disposable income was only 49.7 yuan; after 14 five-year plans, this number has turned into 39,218 yuan in 2023, nearly an 800-fold increase.
However, the '14th Five-Year Plan' introduced this time is different from any previous one. Because the three engines supporting China's 40 years of rapid economic growth— land finance, world factory, population dividend— are all facing unprecedented challenges, and the new engines have not yet fully started. This critical moment of transition between the old and the new is precisely the best window for wealth redistribution.
In the past 20 years, local governments profited by acquiring land at low prices and selling it at high prices to developers, with profit margins reaching dozens of times. In 2021, the national land transfer fee was 8.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 32% of national fiscal revenue, supporting public services such as subways and schools.
In 2023, the land transfer fee dropped to 5.8 trillion yuan, a reduction of one-third from its peak. On the surface, it is because houses are not selling (there are enough vacant houses for 200 million people to live in), but deeper is the internal contradiction of the development model: land prices push up housing prices → cost of living rises → labor costs increase → the real economy is under pressure, leading to factory closures, youth unemployment, and decreased ability to buy houses, forming a vicious cycle where local governments have even less money.
Therefore, the '14th Five-Year Plan' needs to develop a new 'money printing machine'.
So where is it? Two words: industry— but it is not traditional products, but high value-added new industries, such as chip companies where 200 engineers' annual tax can equal that of 20,000 workers in a textile factory, aiming to develop new quality productivity.
For ordinary people, the logic of making money has shifted from 'being bold' to 'being smart', meaning that only those who master core technologies can share the cake, which will affect career choices and wealth accumulation.
China needs to upgrade from 'manufacturing' to 'intelligent manufacturing', for reasons including: in 2023, some iPhone production capacity of Apple was moved to India, and Nike's production lines moved to Vietnam; low-end manufacturing is no longer suitable for China, as its model cannot support 1.4 billion people. For example, a shirt is priced at 50 yuan at the factory, with profits of less than 5 yuan. Workers make 20 pieces a day to create profits of 100 yuan, with a monthly salary of only 3,000 yuan.
But what if it is a senior engineer designing chips? One month
It may create millions of value; offering a monthly salary of 100,000, the company can still profit.
This is the internal logic of industrial upgrading—not whether we want to upgrade, but that without upgrading, ordinary people cannot live a good life.
So, why does the '14th Five-Year Plan' prioritize technological innovation?
Because this is the key to whether 1.4 billion people can live a good life. Without technological breakthroughs, there are no industrial upgrades; without industrial upgrades, there are no high-paying jobs; without high-paying jobs, there is no consumption capacity; without consumption capacity, the economy cannot turn... this logical chain is tightly linked.
Third layer: Why does China want to implement 'internal circulation'?
Many people misunderstand internal circulation, thinking it means closing the door and playing alone. Wrong! The essence of internal circulation is to change the overly dependent pattern on external demand, transforming it into 'dual circulation of internal and external promoting each other'. Why change? Because the situation has changed— in the past, China's dependence on foreign trade reached as high as 67%, but by 2023, it has dropped to 33%. This indicates that we must rely more on domestic demand to drive growth.
But what is the biggest obstacle to turning to internal circulation? It is that ordinary people have no money to consume. Data shows that Chinese residents' consumption accounts for only 38% of GDP (the United States is 68%). Why is there such a big difference? Because Chinese people's money has all gone to buying houses and saving in banks; they dare not spend.
Therefore, one of the core tasks of the '14th Five-Year Plan' is to make ordinary people dare to spend money and be able to spend money. How to do it?
1. Increasing income is one aspect;
2. More importantly, reduce worries—medical expenses will no longer bankrupt families, retirement will no longer rely solely on children, and education will no longer empty six wallets.
Only in this way can internal circulation truly get moving. However, this transformation cannot be achieved overnight; it requires a perfect social security system, optimized income distribution, and a shift in consumption concepts... This is a system project, and the '14th Five-Year Plan' is the blueprint for this project.
What should ordinary people do in this great change?
1. Recognize trends, choose the right track
- Hot industries: new energy, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, high-end equipment (explosive growth in the next five years)
Declining industries: traditional real estate, low-end manufacturing, pure labor services (accelerating clearance)
2. Improve capabilities, master technology:
In the next five years, hundreds of millions of repetitive jobs may disappear, but at the same time, hundreds of millions of creative jobs will be created. Ask yourself: Is my job something machines can do, or is it something only humans can do?
3. Adjust mentality, embrace change:
In the past 40 years, we relied on courage, but in the future, we need real skills. Cultivating sustainable learning ability is key to standing firm in times of change.
What is the essence of the '14th Five-Year Plan'?
It is the roadmap for China's economic transformation, the opportunity list for 1.4 billion people, and also the starting gun for a wealth reshuffle.
At this historical turning point: some will be run over by the wheels of the times; some will catch the fast train of the times.
The difference lies in whether you understand the rules, whether you are prepared, and whether you dare to change.
Historical experience tells us that every economic transformation will produce a group of new wealthy individuals while eliminating a group of old players:
- The tide of going to sea in 1992 created the first generation of entrepreneurs:
- The internet wave after 2000 created BAT:
- The mobile internet wave in 2010 created TMD.
Now, a new wave has come. This opportunity may be the last inclusive opportunity—once the industrial pattern is set and the classes are solidified, the window for ordinary people to turn their fortunes around will close.
Remember: In China, understanding policies means understanding the future. And now, the code to the future is written in the '14th Five-Year Plan'.
So, when the horn of the '14th Five-Year Plan' is sounded, are you ready?