Monthly close is approaching next week, and it’s shaping up to be a volatile one.
We’ve already taken liquidity above the external highs and seen a clean rejection back toward the lows. One thing to remember: long wicks rarely get ignored. Over time, price usually revisits and partially or fully fills them unfinished liquidity tends to get dealt with.
There’s still a full week of price action left, so the direction isn’t confirmed yet. That said, a few clear scenarios are on the table:
Scenario 1
BTC pushes higher into the 28th and secures a strong monthly close. February then kicks off by filling the upper portion of the wick early, followed by a pullback toward the 83.8K region later in the month.
Scenario 2
BTC closes the month near current levels, around 89K. In early February, price runs the 91–92K zone first, then starts to trend lower afterward.
Scenario 3
$BTC loses both the weekly and monthly opens and closes below them before February begins. If this plays out, it’s a clear and aggressive bearish signal.
Personally, I’m leaning more toward scenario 1 or 2. With market sentiment already heavily bearish, a move higher would actually be the least surprising outcome.
That said if 83.8K is lost, I wouldn’t want to be holding any long positions.
