China is winning the oil game right now while India steps back. 🇨🇳🛢️
It’s a massive shift. Russian Urals oil is currently being offloaded to China at a $10 discount per barrel compared to Brent. To put that in perspective, just a few months ago, it was selling at a premium.
Why the sudden fire sale?
India previously Russia’s biggest customer—is starting to reject cargoes. New US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft have Indian refiners spooked about their own bank accounts.
The result: Russia has way too much oil and nowhere to put it. China smelled the opportunity and jumped in, ramping up imports to a record 400,000 barrels per day. Basically, India’s caution is China’s profit. While everyone else is worried about sanctions, Chinese refiners are filling their tanks at prices we haven't seen in years.
Is this a temporary dip or the new normal for 2026? I’m betting on China keeping their foot on the gas as long as these discounts exist.
