Bitcoin (BTC) Traders on prediction platforms assign less than 10% chance that the cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 before February.
This pessimism reflects weak market dynamics, three months after the October 2025 peak of Bitcoin beyond $126,000.
Polymarket data indicates a probability of around 6% for a rise above six figures in January. Kalshi traders assess the chances at less than 9% for the same period.
Bitcoin briefly touched $97,900 on January 14, but has since fallen back to around $89,000. The cryptocurrency last traded above $100,000 in mid-November 2025.
What traders expect
Longer-term probabilities remain higher. Kalshi participants estimate a 54% probability that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 before June. Polymarket shows an 88% chance that this threshold will be crossed at some point in 2026.
Short bets have gained traction. Polymarket traders assign a 65% probability to the scenario where Bitcoin falls to $80,000 before reaching $100,000. Kalshi participants estimate a 54% chance of a low at $70,000 this year.
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Strategy's position at risk
Strategy holds 709,715 bitcoins acquired for approximately $54 billion. The average cost per coin for the company ranges between $66,000 and $76,000, depending on the accounting method.
Polymarket indicates a 75% chance that Bitcoin trades below Strategy's breakeven price during 2026. The company purchased 22,305 coins last week for approximately $2.13 billion.
Why this matters
These modest probabilities reflect Bitcoin's inability to maintain its momentum after its 2025 correction. The cryptocurrency fell by about 29% from its October peak, erasing the gains that had followed the November 2024 halving event.
Traders cite macroeconomic uncertainty and limited buying pressure as key headwinds. Bitcoin needs to reclaim resistance areas between $94,000 and $96,000 before it can attempt a new push into the $100,000 territory.
Next read: CZ Predicts 2026 Bitcoin Supercycle Could Break Four-Year Pattern
