Hedera is still struggling to regain momentum after recent declines, causing HBAR's price movement to remain within a narrow range. HBAR briefly tried to stabilize, but the recovery halted as holder behavior influenced market sentiment.
This uncertainty could still be advantageous for Futures traders, as current positions indicate there will be sharp movements if key levels are breached.
Hedera Traders Have Much to Lose
The derivative data shows that short HBAR traders face significant risks if the price rises. The liquidation map indicates that the largest short cluster is around the US$0.114 level. If the price moves to that level, approximately US$4.5 million in short positions will be liquidated, forcing them to make quick purchases.
The current market position is still inclined to be dominated by shorts rather than longs. This imbalance reflects negative sentiment in the derivative market. Overcrowded short exposure increases the likelihood of a volatility spike, especially if the price manages to break through resistance and forces traders to quickly close losing positions.
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Macro indicators show that investor participation is weakening. The Chaikin Money Flow has been declining for nearly the last two weeks, recording lower lows consecutively. CMF tracks the flow of capital in and out of an asset based on price and volume, making it an important demand signal.
The value of the indicator dropping below the zero line confirms that net outflows dominate HBAR. This behavior indicates that investors are more likely to reduce exposure rather than accumulate. Ongoing outflows typically put downward pressure on prices and slow recovery, unless there is a significant change in sentiment.
At the time of publication, HBAR was trading around US$0.108, right at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This level is a crucial point for trend direction. If it manages to hold as support, the chances of recovery will be greater and could potentially challenge the existing bearish bias.
If the outflow continues, HBAR may fail to maintain this zone. In such a scenario, the price could drop again to the 2026 low around US$0.102. Such a movement would extend the downtrend and further strengthen the bearish momentum in both the spot and derivative markets.
A bullish scenario requires confirmation of reclaiming the 23.6% Fibonacci level. If this level becomes support, HBAR could rise towards the 38.2% Fib area around US$0.112. Breaking through resistance at US$0.115 could trigger the liquidation of short positions, invalidating the bearish thesis, and supporting a broader price recovery.
