Monero has entered a phase of volatility after a drop from its recently established all-time high (ATH). The XMR rate sharply retreated, which triggered mixed reactions in the market.
The altcoin has stabilized above 500 USD, but the risk of declines is still high. Technical data and indicators from the derivatives markets suggest caution despite the short-term resilience of the price.
Traderzy Monero wycofują się
Data from the derivatives market shows weakening conviction among traders. Open positions in Monero have decreased by nearly 20% over the last 72 hours, from 272 million USD to 217 million USD. This reduction indicates that traders are closing positions rather than increasing exposure, reflecting growing uncertainty about the price direction in the near term.
Interestingly, the funding rate remained positive despite traders withdrawing from leverage. A positive funding rate indicates that long positions still dominate over short ones. This imbalance suggests that traders expect a rebound, yet the reduction of open positions shows they do not want to maintain risk during increased volatility.
The liquidation map indicates significant risks of declines below current levels. Long positions have greater exposure than short positions, which increases vulnerability in case of a price drop. Even a slight drop below support at 500 USD could trigger forced liquidations, amplifying selling pressure.
Data shows that a 3% drop below 489 USD could liquidate about 3.62 million USD in long positions. Such a move would likely accelerate losses due to cascading liquidations. This situation demonstrates that XMR remains susceptible to sharp declines despite current stabilization.
On-chain flow indicators reinforce a cautious outlook on the market. The Chaikin indicator has recorded a sharp decline in recent days. CMF measures capital flows using price and volume, providing insight into investor behavior.
A breach of the indicator below zero signals that outflows now dominate in Monero. This change indicates that investors are reducing exposure rather than accumulating. A sustained negative CMF often heralds further price weakening, especially in conjunction with fragile positions in derivatives.
Monero is trading around 524 USD at the time of writing, holding above the psychologically significant support at 500 USD. This level has acted as a defense zone, attracting buyers during recent declines. Maintaining it remains crucial to prevent deeper losses.
23.6% Fibonacci retracement is around 503 USD and is often referred to as bear market support. Staying above this level has so far limited declines. However, rising liquidation risks and weakening inflows suggest that a breach remains possible. A decisive drop below 500 USD could bring XMR around 450 USD.
The bullish reversal scenario cannot be ruled out. If positive funding rates and trader optimism outweigh selling pressure, XMR could regain momentum. In such a case, the Monero price could head towards resistance at 560 USD. A sustained breakout could lead to a rise up to 606 USD, invalidating the bearish scenario.
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