The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is about to be announced, and this movement may have a considerable impact on the global digital asset market.
Why is this meeting so important? History provides us with the answer. Last December, when the Bank of Japan merely released a hawkish signal, the price of BTC fell by over 10%. In an earlier policy shift, the market even experienced a 30% drop. This is not a small fluctuation, but a real systemic risk.
The core logic is quite simple: yen carry trade. For a long time, global financial institutions have taken advantage of Japan's low-interest rate environment to borrow yen at nearly zero cost and then invest those funds into high-risk assets like $BTC in U.S. stocks. How large is this amount of money? It's enough to change the structure of market liquidity. Once the Bank of Japan decides to tighten its policy, these borrowed yen must be paid back immediately. What is the result? Hundreds of billions of dollars are forced out of the crypto market, and BTC can only face passive selling.
Investors are presented with a clear binary choice:
If the Bank of Japan adopts a hawkish stance (raises interest rates), carry trades will be quickly unwound, and BTC may directly fall to 90,000, 80,000, or even lower levels. The depletion of liquidity will accelerate this process.
If the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance (keeps low interest rates), market sentiment will immediately reverse, and the FOMO effect may drive BTC towards the 100,000 mark. However, such an increase is often built on a very fragile liquidity foundation.
The key question is: Can you really predict the central bank's choice accurately? On-chain data shows that large holders have been quietly adjusting their positions—some institutions are reducing their holdings, hedging risks, and lowering leverage. What do these actions indicate? They indicate that smart money in the market is preparing for the worst-case scenario.
This is not a gamble you can control. Changes in central bank policy are usually sudden, and the market's reaction is often more severe than expected. Before the Bank of Japan's final decision is made, you still have a window of time to review your positions. Ask yourself: Is your current holding ratio really capable of withstanding a drop of more than 30%? Is your risk management strategy already in place?
On the eve of the storm, the choice is in your hands. #日本加息