In the past few days, many brothers have watched their accounts shrink and have sent me private messages asking, 'Brother Black, has the bull run ended? What kind of nonsense is happening over in the U.S.?'
Bitcoin has dropped from approaching the 100,000 mark to around 88,000, and altcoins are in a state of lament. The trigger for this pullback is not a collapse of the fundamentals, but a 'black swan' from Washington - the sudden delay of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY Act).
For newcomers to the cryptocurrency world, this sounds like dull political news, but it directly determines the fate of the coins in your hands. In this long article today, we won't discuss the abstract; we will break down the capital game behind the 'bill delay' and tell you why I believe this 'bad news' is actually a long-term super positive, and how we should layout in the coming months.
One, What Happened? Why hasn't the 'traffic rules' been issued?
First, let me explain the background to the newbies.
2026 was originally seen as the 'compliance year' for the U.S. The market has been waiting for a law called the (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) (CLARITY Act). You can think of it as the 'traffic law' for the crypto space - it will specify who the traffic police are (SEC or CFTC?), and what can be done and what cannot be done.
The 'critical vote' originally scheduled for January 15 in the Senate Banking Committee was suddenly halted. The delay is indefinite, possibly until the end of February or even March.
It's like everyone is waiting for the traffic lights to turn green to speed off, but suddenly the traffic control bureau turns off the lights and says, 'We will study this further.' The market fears not bad news, but uncertainty. This is the fundamental reason for the market's correction these past few days.
Two, In-depth Revelation: Why is the bill 'difficult to produce'? (Insider Insights)
Many media outlets only tell you 'it has been delayed', but do not tell you 'why'. The game behind this is very exciting and is key to our judgment of the market's future.
1. The Uprising of Capital: Coinbase's 'Table Flipping' Behavior (Case Analysis)
One core reason for this delay is that Coinbase, the largest compliant exchange in the U.S., withdrew its support for the bill.
Why withdraw? Because the bill included 'hidden agendas'.
In this version of the bill, there is a clause limiting stablecoin earnings. Simply put, traditional banks not only want to control your money but also do not allow crypto companies to pay you 'interest'.
Case: Suppose you hold USDC (a stablecoin), and a crypto company can pay you interest like a money market fund. But bankers are panicking; if everyone deposits stablecoins for high interest, who will deposit in banks? So they want to use the law to prohibit this.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly opposed it, stating, 'Rather than passing a bad bill, it is better to have no bill at all.' This is, in fact, the crypto industry saying 'no' to traditional financial hegemony.
2. Trump's 'New Lover': Housing Issues Take Priority
Another macro background is that the Trump administration's focus has suddenly shifted to 'housing affordability' and curbing institutional real estate speculation. The Senate Banking Committee has slightly lowered the priority of the crypto bill to align with the president's agenda. It's like the boss suddenly wants to enforce attendance, and the original team-building plan is naturally put on hold.
Three, In-depth Analysis: Why do I say this is a 'big benefit'?
Seeing this, newbies might ask: 'Brother Black, isn't the delay of the bill a bad thing?'
In the short term, it is a negative, but in the long term, it is a big benefit.
If this flawed, industry-restricting 'bad bill' really passed on January 15, that would be a disaster for the crypto space. It would stifle innovation in DeFi (decentralized finance) and turn cryptocurrencies into appendages of traditional banks.
The current 'delay' is actually a successful defensive battle.
The industry has gained a voice: Previously, it was whatever the regulators said goes; now crypto giants (like Coinbase) have become powerful enough to influence the legislative process. This means future regulations will be more inclined to protect industry interests.
Time for Space: Delaying until March provides the industry with more time to lobby for the modification of those unpleasant provisions.
Fundamentals remain unchanged: The trend of institutional entry has not stopped. Giants like BlackRock continue to accumulate ETFs, valuing the assets themselves rather than short-term policy noise.
Four, Case Review: History Always Has Striking Similarities
Not just this time, we can look at similar moments in history.
The 2021 Infrastructure Bill Turmoil: At that time, the U.S. attempted to insert tax provisions extremely unfavorable to miners into the infrastructure bill. The market panicked and plummeted. But later, the industry united to lobby; although the bill passed, the subsequent interpretation was not so strict, and Bitcoin later reached a new high of 69,000 a few months later.
Ripple (XRP) Victory Case: The SEC had long sued Ripple, leading to XRP's prolonged slump. But when Ripple finally achieved partial victory legally, the token price doubled in a single day.
Insight: During the regulatory game period, every 'negative that has not killed you' will ultimately become fuel for the rise.
Five, Predictions for Future Trends and Practical Suggestions for Newbies
Since the overall direction is 'long-term positive, short-term fluctuations', what should we do?
1. Pay attention to key time nodes
January 27 (next week): The Senate Agriculture Committee will release their version of the bill. The Agriculture Committee is generally more friendly to the crypto space (they oversee the CFTC and treat cryptocurrencies as commodities). If good news comes out that day, the market may see a rebound.
Late February / Early March: The Banking Committee may restart discussions. Before that, the market is likely to experience wide fluctuations, which is a 'grinding' market.
2. Three Cautions for Newbies' Operations
Avoid high leverage: During this political game period, news is flying everywhere, and price spikes (instant surges or drops) will be very frequent. Opening contracts is like giving away money.
Avoid panic selling: As long as you hold core assets like BTC, ETH, or Solana, a drop is an opportunity to get on board, not a signal to get off.
Avoid being reactive: Don’t panic at headlines like 'the bill has been killed', go check if it’s merely a 'delay'.
3. Layout Direction
This time, Coinbase's strong stance against the banking system actually benefits the **DeFi (decentralized finance)** sector and the **RWA (real-world assets)** sector. Because it proves that the industry is defending the bottom line of 'decentralized earnings'.
Conclusion
Brothers, making money in the crypto space is never about luck, but about the realization of knowledge.
The delay of the U.S. bill is essentially a fierce confrontation between new and old money (Crypto vs Banks). The current decline is clearing out those who are not resolute. As retail investors, we cannot change the tide's direction, but we must learn that as long as the boat is still afloat, we should not jump into the sea easily.
I am CryptoBlack, not only bringing you to understand the excitement but also helping you grasp the essence.
Do you think this bill delay is a good opportunity to buy the dip, or the beginning of a bear market? Let me know in the comments, and I will share a potential coin I have recently added to my portfolio in the pinned comment.
(Like and follow, don’t get lost, let me take you through the bull and bear market)
