1. Analysis of the current daily situation
Context: The day has passed inside the range of the previous bearish week (0.03454 - 0.04035).
Price action: Open: 0.03681 (near the weekly close of 0.03640).
Attempt to rise to 0.03788 (+2.9% from the open), but rejection and close at the bottom of the day's range at 0.03646.
A doji/candle with a small body and upper shadow is forming — this is a sign of indecision and seller pressure on the rise.
Key takeaway for the day: Despite an attempt to rebound, buyers could not maintain initiative. Closing in the red and in the lower half of the daily range — preserving short-term bearish pressure.
2. Updated forecast for the next 1-3 days
Based on the context of a bearish week and a weak daily candle, the baseline scenario shifts towards continued consolidation with a risk of a downward breakout.
Scenario 1 (Most likely, ~60%) — Testing and breaking the weekly support 0.03454
Target: A weak daily candle after a decline indicates a high probability of testing the minimum of the week (0.03454).
Trigger: Daily candle close below the level 0.03568 (minimum of the last day).
Target on breakout: 0.0320 - 0.0330 (zone of significant support, next major level).
Risk: High volume on the week (252M) may indicate capitulation, but confirmation is needed on the daily timeframe.
Scenario 2 (~30%) — Consolidation in the range 0.0350 - 0.0380
Condition: Price holds above 0.03500 and cannot consolidate below 0.03454.
Dynamics: Sideways movement in anticipation of a new driver from the overall market (Bitcoin).
Trading: Short-term scalping trades within the range may be possible, but the trend remains neutrally bearish.
Scenario 3 (Less likely, ~10%) — Strong rebound to 0.0400.
Condition: A sharp increase in volumes and a daily candle close above the maximum of the last day (0.03788), ideally — above 0.03900.
Trigger: Positive news about The Graph project or overall bullish momentum in the altcoin market.
Obstacle: The zone 0.04000-0.04035 now acts as strong resistance.
3. Levels to watch (priority)
Nearest support: 0.03568 (minimum of yesterday) → a breakout will increase the likelihood of a decline.
Key support: 0.03454 (weekly minimum) → a breakout with volume opens the way to 0.0320.
Nearest resistance: 0.03788 (yesterday's maximum) → overcoming may provide a rebound to 0.0390.
Strong resistance: 0.04000 - 0.04035 (zone of opening and maximum of last week) — level for a possible trend reversal.
4. Recommendations for trading (updated)
Bearish / Consider short on the rebound to resistance 0.0375 - 0.0380.
Stop-loss: above 0.03830. Target: 0.0350 -> 0.0345.
Neutral/Wait for a clear breakout. Do not trade within the narrow range (0.0357 - 0.0379) due to high risk and low potential.
Actively monitor the level 0.03454.
Cautious entry into long/Only on a rebound from 0.0345 with confirmation (reversal candle at support, volume increase).
Stop-loss: below 0.03400. Target for scalping: 0.0370 - 0.0380.
Attention: On the daily timeframe, the trend is downward. Buying against the trend is risky.
5. What could change the forecast (Observation factors)
Bitcoin dynamics: A sharp rise/fall in BTC will instantly reflect on GRT.
Volume at the test of 0.03454: Low volume on approach — possible false breakout (sneak). High volume — confirmation of further decline.
Market context: Overall sentiment in the altcoin market (Cap Altcoin Index).
Conclusion: The current technical picture remains bearish. The main focus is on price behavior at the critical weekly minimum of 0.03454. Unless the price consolidates above 0.04035, the upward trend will not resume.#GRT $GRT
