On the H1 chart, Ethereum has clearly completed a distribution → markdown cycle after failing at the upper boundary of the accumulation range around 3,330–3,380. The sharp bearish impulse that followed confirms that the prior sideways structure was not a continuation, but a distribution. Once the price broke below 3,286, selling pressure accelerated and $ETH transitioned into a clean bearish trend, with the EMA rolling over and acting as consistent dynamic resistance.
After the initial breakdown, the price paused briefly inside the sideway zone near 3,180–3,230, but this consolidation failed to attract meaningful demand. The loss of 3,180 acted as confirmation of trend continuation, leading to another impulsive leg down that drove price directly into the higher-timeframe support range around 2,900–2,950. The speed and structure of this move strongly suggest liquidation-driven selling rather than healthy pullbacks.
At current levels, ETH is reacting off major support, and the slowdown in downside momentum indicates sell-side exhaustion. This makes a technical rebound highly plausible, especially after such an extended impulsive decline. Structurally, a corrective bounce toward 3,020–3,050 is reasonable, with a deeper retracement potentially targeting the prior breakdown area around 3,150–3,180, which now represents the most important resistance cluster.
However, it is critical to frame this move correctly: any upside from here remains corrective unless proven otherwise. As long as the price stays below 3,180–3,230, ETH remains in a bearish short-term structure. Only a sustained reclaim and acceptance back inside the former sideways zone would invalidate the distribution thesis and signal a potential trend shift.
In summary, Ethereum is currently in a relief-rally phase after a completed markdown, reacting at a strong support range. A bounce is technically justified, but until former support is reclaimed, this should be treated as a sell-the-rally environment, not a confirmed bullish reversal.
