The movements of the Bitcoin price over the past week indicate that the market is extremely sensitive to position adjustments and changes in sentiment. BTC briefly fell below $90,000, but buying on dips by short-term investors and high volatility accelerated a rebound early on. This movement exhibited the typical characteristics of a late-stage market with a sense of speed and strong topicality.
At present, the price is temporarily stable, but the overall flow remains opaque. Participants in the spot Bitcoin ETF are also continuing to take a wait-and-see approach, and this cautious stance will likely determine whether the current rebound continues or whether it will enter another downward phase.
Historical Trends for Bitcoin Sellers
According to on-chain data, realized losses are currently concentrated in the 3–6 month holding period, with secondary contributions seen in the 6–12 month range. Many of these investors purchased in the cycle's high range, particularly above $110,000, and are now holding unrealized losses as the price has fallen near the average acquisition cost.
Such loss realization is primarily driven by risk-averse movements rather than a new bearish stance. These investors tend to sell during early rebounds, creating upward selling pressure at critical recovery points. As a result, Bitcoin's upward attempts often slow down before regaining momentum.
Technical analysis of tokens and the latest market information: For more detailed insights, please subscribe to the newsletter delivered daily by editor Harsh Notariya. Here.
Looking at past examples, phases where realized losses surge in these holding layers often indicate late-stage corrections rather than full-fledged distribution phases. In past cycles, after the capitulation selling in this layer subsided, Bitcoin found a bottom and turned upward again. Currently, it is highly likely that we are already approaching an exhaustion phase from excessive panic selling.
Buying pressure has recovered earlier than expected
Momentum indicators show a recovery occurring earlier than expected. The Money Flow Index (MFI) has shown a significant increase in the last 48 hours, indicating a resurgence in buying pressure. Since MFI reflects both price and volume, it serves as a useful indicator for measuring actual demand during periods of high volatility.
The sharp rise in MFI is believed to be influenced by the easing of geopolitical risks surrounding Greenland. Bitcoin's response indicates that short-term players remain sensitive to macroeconomic headlines. Although this flow provides short-term support, there is a risk that the boom could rapidly diminish if the macro environment shifts back to risk aversion.
In other words, while momentum shows an improving trend, it remains fragile and reactive, and has not yet reached a structural upward trend.
Continued outflows from ETFs
Despite BTC rebounding over the past two days, the flow from ETFs has consistently shown bearishness. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to see net outflows this week, totaling approximately $1.6 billion over three trading days. The outflow amount for a single day on Wednesday reached $780 million, the largest since November 2025.
The discrepancy between price and ETF outflows is noteworthy. This indicates that institutional and long-term investors are not yet supporting a recovery scenario. Rather, they appear to be cautiously assessing the reallocation to risk assets until the macroeconomic environment stabilizes further.
As long as the outflow from ETFs continues, upward momentum is likely to face headwinds. Ongoing outflows suppress rebounds, making it difficult for BTC to reclaim and maintain important resistance levels.
Bitcoin Price Aiming for Recovery
On the technical side, Bitcoin has been fluctuating within an expanding rising wedge pattern since mid-November 2025. This pattern suggests increased volatility rather than a clear trend continuation. Recently, aggressive buying by short-term players narrowly avoided breaking below the lower trend line.
In response to such movements, the price has rebounded above $90,000 again, and the current BTC price is around $90,054. If a clear upward breakout from this pattern is confirmed, the next long-term target will be above $98,000, but a cautious stance remains necessary at this stage.
The immediate focus is on $91,298. If this level is clearly broken and maintained, a rise to $93,471 also comes into view. However, the downside risk is linked to ETF trends. If outflows continue, the price may remain below resistance, and Bitcoin could fall below $90,000 again.
In that case, the next downside target will be $87,210 or a retest of the lower bound of the rising wedge. Until the fund flow clearly turns positive, Bitcoin is likely to continue in a highly volatile range market, so patience is essential.
