Cathy Wood's ARK Invest has provided its clearest long-term outlook to date on two assets symbolizing the 2024-2025 market cycle, Bitcoin and Nvidia. The firm's latest report, 'Big Ideas 2026', predicts that Bitcoin's market capitalization will increase by 700% over the next four years.
Furthermore, Nvidia's dominant position in the AI hardware sector suggests that competitive pressure from rivals may intensify.
Bitcoin price may reach $800,000
ARK points out that Bitcoin's movements changed significantly in 2025. That year saw a smaller decline, reduced volatility, and improved risk-adjusted returns compared to previous cycles.
In terms of the Sharpe ratio, Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum, Solana, and the CoinDesk 10 index over multiple periods. This change supports ARK's view that Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset, but is strengthening its role as a safe haven asset.
In light of this, ARK believes that Bitcoin will maintain a leading position in the rapidly expanding cryptocurrency market. The company predicts that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will reach $28 trillion by 2030, achieving an annual growth rate of approximately 61%.
Notably, it is believed that Bitcoin will account for 70% of its market, and it is pointed out that by the end of the decade, its market capitalization could reach approximately $16 trillion.
Based on the current supply outlook, this corresponds to about $800,000 per Bitcoin. This is an increase of about nine times from the current level of around $90,000.
However, ARK's forecasts are not bullish for all use cases. The outlook for Bitcoin as a safe haven asset in emerging markets has been revised downwards due to the rapid proliferation of dollar-pegged stablecoins.
On the other hand, due to the rapid expansion of gold's market capitalization in 2025, the premise of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' has been raised.
NVIDIA continues to grow, but competition intensifies
ARK's outlook for Nvidia shows a cautious tone even as AI demand surges.
The company anticipates that global AI infrastructure investments will exceed $1.4 trillion by 2030. The primary factor is accelerated servers, and this trend supports long-term demand for AI chips, including Nvidia's GPUs.
However, ARK notes a significant shift in trends. Hyperscalers and AI research institutions are beginning to focus on total ownership costs, rather than just judging based on performance.
This shift supports the proliferation of specialized AI chips and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs).
Competitors such as AMD, Broadcom, Amazon's Annapurna Labs, and Google's TPU platform are already supplying or developing next-generation chips.
Nvidia is facing intense competition from AMD. Source: ARK Invest
Many competing products may have inferior performance, but their operational costs per hour are lower than Nvidia's top-tier systems.
According to ARK's data, Nvidia's latest GPUs boast top-class performance, while their operational costs are among the highest. This price pressure may slow the pace of profit margin expansion compared to recent years.
Impact on Nvidia stocks
ARK does not predict Nvidia's business collapse. However, it points out a transition from explosive monopoly to a more competitive growth period.
Regarding stock prices, a different trajectory is anticipated compared to Bitcoin. Future rises are expected to be influenced more by profit growth, software revenue, and ecosystem establishment rather than multiple expansions.
In reality, while Nvidia's stock price may continue to rise, the growth pace is expected to slow, volatility is likely to increase, and reactions to competition and profit margin pressures will become more intense. The 'easy mode' driven by AI-led reevaluation is likely over.
