Bitcoin is once again in the spotlight of investors as the market shows increasing nervousness and a lack of clear direction. Crypto Stasiak, in his latest analysis, explains why the current declines may be merely a precursor to a deeper correction. At the same time, he emphasizes that despite the fear and headlines, the long-term trend has not yet been definitively broken.
The cryptocurrency market is balancing today between fear and hope, so it is worth looking at the situation calmly and step by step.
Current situation in the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin, after declines below 100,000 USD, entered a consolidation phase that weakened the market momentum. Crypto Stasiak notes that the price is moving chaotically, and the investor sees a lack of decisive upward momentum. The key resistance remains the STH SOPR line, which is the average purchase price of short-term holders. As long as the market does not break through it, the trend change to bullish is not confirmed.
The analyst emphasizes that current movements often confuse retail investors. On one hand, there are quick rebounds, but on the other hand, there is a lack of continuation. This is a classic environment for false signals and price traps. Therefore, in his opinion, patience remains key.
In the short term, local liquidity attracts the price downwards. The largest concentration is below 90,000 USD, which increases the chances of testing these levels. Additionally, the market sees a CME gap around 87,000 USD, which often acts like a magnet. Stasiak considers a drop to 89,000–90,000 USD as almost a formality.
On-chain and futures show mixed signals.
On-chain data, however, introduces more nuances to the whole picture. The sale of long-term holders, known as 'dinosaurs,' has fallen to the lowest level since October 2025. This means that selling pressure from the oldest capital has clearly weakened. Such a signal often appears in accumulation phases, rather than in the midst of panic.
At the same time, open interest in futures contracts increased during the last price rebound. This suggests a return of speculative interest in the market. The leverage sell indicator, on the other hand, shows that the recent declines may be fake. The futures market is transitioning to a risk-off mode, which often precedes sharp reversals.
Crypto Stasiak points out specific price levels worth monitoring. In his opinion, a drop to 86,000 USD would mean testing the value area low. Such a move would still be within the context of a correction, not a full bear market. Only deeper declines would change the market structure.
Bearish scenarios for Bitcoin according to Crypto Stasiak.
The analyst clearly communicates that a full bear market has not yet begun. According to him, the key level remains 74,000 USD. As long as the weekly candle does not close below this zone, the long-term uptrend remains in effect. However, a weekly close below 90,000 USD would be very bearish.
Crypto Stasiak presents several possible scenarios for further price movement:
a drop to 89,000–90,000 USD as a base move.
deepening the drop to 86,000 USD with increased volatility.
deeper correction to 74,000 USD as the boundary confirmation of the bear market.
In a more extreme variant, the market could drop much lower. Stasiak points to zones of 48,000 USD, 38,000 USD, and even 29,000 USD as potential 'liquid grabs.' Such a move would involve maximum liquidity cleaning. However, the analyst emphasizes that perfectly catching the bottom is virtually impossible.
So here, if we manage to enter, I will take my profits on a short for the bear market at 48,000 USD and start buying Bitcoin around 48,000 USD. However, those who are already in shorts here, which is a very good entry, should consider taking their first take profits if it's a longer swing around 73,500 USD, adjusting to break even, and waiting for a decision on whether we will continue to drop and enter an official bear market at 48,000 USD, maybe even fulfilling that turbo important candle at 38,000 USD. We will see this as a maximum liquid grab. […] although some talk about lower drops […] at the level of 29,000 USD, which would be quite a deep drop, very much possible. However, it is known that in such a situation we will never hit the perfect bottom, so personally I will start my purchases from 48,000 USD.
After this scenario, the market could enter a new accumulation phase.
Macro, Ethereum, and the broader market context.
The drop in Bitcoin's price by about 4,000 USD coincided with nervous macroeconomic news. Donald Trump threatened 10% tariffs on products from eight European countries starting February 1. The European Union responded by suspending the ratification of the trade agreement and preparing retaliatory tariffs worth 93 billion euros. Markets reacted sharply, but Stasiak considers this move as a fake sell-off.
According to the analyst, the pattern remains repetitive. Trump announces a controversial statement, the market reacts with panic selling, and then a quick buy-up follows. Therefore, short-term movements may not reflect the real condition of the market. The investor should distinguish between informational noise and structural trend changes.
Ethereum during this time shows surprising fundamental strength. The network recorded over 2.5 million transactions in one day, which is an all-time record. Daily activity has nearly doubled compared to last year. Key support for ETH is at 2,800 USD, and a potential drop to 2,175 USD still fits within the continuation of the bull market.
In conclusion, Stasiak reminds that the cryptocurrency market requires patience. Bitcoin may still scare with declines, but the long-term trend remains intact. Key remains risk management and avoiding emotional decisions. An investor who remains calm can leverage the upcoming volatility to their advantage.
To learn about the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
