Portuguese authorities are preparing to block access to Polymarket after millions of euros were wagered on the outcome of the presidential elections in the country before the official results were published.
Prediction markets continue to gain popularity — the main activities on the platform remain sports, politics, and cryptocurrencies.
Polymarket faced pressure from regulators in Portugal.
According to Renascença, the Portuguese Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) confirmed that the cryptocurrency-based platform Polymarket operates illegally in the country — local legislation prohibits betting on political events.
According to the agency, on Friday Polymarket received an official notice demanding that it cease operations in Portugal within 48 hours. Despite this, the platform remained accessible on Monday, prompting the SRIJ to begin preparations to block the resource through internet providers.
Polymarket has attracted attention after large sums were unexpectedly placed in the final hours before the closure of the districts for the presidential elections in Portugal.
It is reported that at that moment, the betting volume exceeded €4 million, and the total turnover in the main presidential market had already surpassed $120 million. During these hours, the odds sharply shifted in favor of António José Segura — even before the official forecasts were published.
Market data shows: the probability of Segura's victory increased from about 60% in the morning to over 90% by evening, and by the time the TV forecasts were released, it had become quite obvious.
Such rapid changes sparked rumors that some traders may have gained access to exit polls or other confidential information before others.