Zcash was on the verge of a significant decline, but buyers entered at the last moment. The bearish pattern was almost confirmed on the 12-hour chart, suggesting a substantial adjustment in Zcash's price.

However, in reality, dip buying strengthened, forming a long lower wick and avoiding a decline. Still, the focus is whether this was genuine buying interest or just a temporary defense. The decline may have only been postponed.

Buying entered just before a 34% drop, resulting in a rebound

On the 12-hour chart, Zcash formed a clear head and shoulders pattern. The breakdown line is around $359, temporarily falling below that level. This movement has the potential to trigger the entire pattern, with a projected decline of 34%.

However, the decline was not confirmed.

Buyers entered vigorously and lifted the price back above the support line before the candlestick closed. As a result, a long lower wick appeared. This is a typical example of demand arising at a level where sellers expected continuation. At this moment, this lower wick indicates avoidance of collapse, but not a reversal.

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The momentum is also slightly supportive. From January 10 to 19, Zcash has been making lower lows while the momentum indicator RSI has been making higher lows. This is a typical bullish divergence on the 12-hour chart. It often suggests a short-term rebound after a sharp decline.

However, this divergence is weak. To maintain its validity, Zcash's price needs to stay above $335 on the 12-hour chart. A close below this level would weaken the signal and expand the potential for lower prices again. In other words, buyers have only delayed the decline; the risk has not disappeared.

Whale buying and spot flow slowdown

Exploring the background reveals why the price collapse was halted.

Over the past seven days, whales have increased their Zcash holdings by 12.65%, bringing whale holdings to approximately 9,950 ZEC. This group has been the biggest support during selling urgency. Meanwhile, the top 100 addresses (mega whales) have hardly added any, indicating a cautious stance among long-term holders.

Data from the spot market also supports this trend.

11月䞋旬には、Zcashの1日あたりの取匕所流出額が玄61億ドルに達し、匷い買い意欲が芋られた。しかし珟圚、そうした旺盛な需芁はない。1月18日には流出額が1570䞇ドル、1月19日には768䞇ドルず急枛。ピヌク時から比べお87%の枛少だ。

Buying itself continues, but the pace has significantly slowed.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) indicates the quality of this demand. MFI combines price and volume to show whether buying pressure is aggressive or defensive. On the 12-hour chart, the MFI is making higher lows while Zcash's price is following a downward trend.

This movement does not aim for a breakout; it reflects a tendency for buying on dips. Buyers are only entering when weakness is shown due to declines, not at higher prices.

This difference is significant. Buying on dips can stop sharp declines, but this has also occurred in the recent downturn. However, without stronger, sustained buying, this alone is unlikely to lead to a sustained increase.

At this point, there is demand for Zcash. However, the attitude is cautious and selective, not urgent, and remains reactive.

Important price levels that influence Zcash's rebound reversal

With the downward break temporarily avoided, price levels are now more important than indicators.

The first important zone is around $359 to $350. If Zcash breaks below this area on the 12-hour chart, the head and shoulders pattern is expected to reactivate. In that case, the potential for a drop back to around $250 will reopen, and the anticipated 34% decline will almost be achieved.

On the other hand, if buyers continue to defend this zone, the potential for short-term stability remains.

Regarding the upper levels, $450 is the first test. This level corresponds to the right shoulder of a bearish pattern, and clearly breaking above it could disrupt the bearish structure and potentially generate momentum again.

However, this bearish pattern will only be completely denied if it breaks above $559. Until then, any rebound will not represent a trend reversal, but merely a correction.

Zcash is currently fluctuating in this range. Buyers have shown a willingness to defend prices. Whales are also entering. Buying on dips is active. However, there is not the same conviction as during previous accumulation phases.

The 34% crash has been temporarily avoided. However, whether this continues depends on the future actions of buyers, and cannot be explained solely by past responses.