1. Market Review: Why is it always you who gets hurt?
As stated in the screenshot from 'Crypto Market Observation', the script for the vast majority of retail investors is: 'Meeting at 8 AM on Monday, mainstream assets rally'. However, the script for the market maker is: 'Take advantage of insufficient liquidity and exploit news to go long.'
The collective decline of BTC, ETH, and BNB in this round tells us to acknowledge a bloody reality:
In the highly competitive cryptocurrency market, trying to profit by predicting short-term candlesticks is essentially gambling against a dealer with a god's eye view. Your winning odds are infinitely close to zero.
So, in this market full of 'makeshift' situations and dominated by emotions, where is the real 'certainty'?
My investment research logic is: Look for opportunities that 'regardless of whether the price goes up or down, the system mechanism must reward you'.
II. Deterministic Opportunity I: Swap 'Stablecoin Wear' for 'Token Options'
——A Quick Strategy Example with Genius Terminal
Logical Deduction:
When the overall market crashes, holding mainstream coins (BTC/ETH/SOL) will face asset shrinkage. At this time, the best strategy is not to catch the bottom (because you don’t know where the bottom is), but to generate volume.
Why? Because trading platforms give points as long as there is trading volume, regardless of whether the price goes up or down. If losses can be controlled within a very low range, this essentially means buying the original shares (airdrop) that will be realized in April at a very low cost (transaction fees).
Case Study: Genius Terminal ($GENIUS)
Source of Certainty: The official white paper has clearly indicated the TGE (Token Generation Event) on April 12, with a fixed points pool and no inflation.
Current Market Situation: Many people have given up because the market is bad, which actually lowers the competition difficulty.
Practical Level Nanny Tutorial:
Step One: Registration and Preparation
Enter the Genius Terminal official website, connect your wallet (recommended to use a fingerprint browser + static IP, to avoid witch hunts).
Key Action: Do not recharge ETH or SOL for swing trading (the volatility is high now, easily losing principal).
Recharge Stablecoins: Recharge USDT and USDC into your account.
Step Two: Execute 'Risk-Free' Volume Generation Strategy
Choice of Trading Pair: In spot trading, choose the USDT/USDC trading pair (although the weight is reduced to 0.5, this is the only safe haven in a crash).
Operational Logic:
Buy: Use USDT to buy USDC.
Sell: Sell USDC back to USDT.
The principle: The exchange rate between stablecoins is almost 1:1 with slight fluctuations, and your wear and tear only comes from 0% or very low transaction fees (higher-level fees are lower).
Fund Flow: According to the new rules, settlements will be made once a week. It is recommended to maintain a certain flow every day, rather than making a sudden push on the last day.
Step Three: Profit Estimation
Assuming that the off-market valuation of 10,000 points is 50U. Your cost of generating 10,000 points through stablecoins may only be 5U-10U. This is a 3-5x deterministic return, completely unaffected by the overall market drop of 3.44%.
III. Deterministic Opportunity II: Volatility Hedge Arbitrage
——The 'Contrarian Indicator' Gameplay of Prediction Market (Predict.fun)
Logical Deduction:
Screenshots show that the market crashed due to 'news'. For traditional traders, news is a black swan; but for prediction market players, news is like free money. The greater the volatility, the greater the divergence, and the higher the returns in the prediction market.
Case Study: Predict.fun (Binance System)
Currently, the overall market is unstable, and for certain specific events (like 'Will ETH drop below 2800 this month?'), market sentiment can become extremely panicked.
Practical Strategy:
Finding Deviation: When Twitter is full of comments like 'the bull market is over' and 'it's going to drop to 20,000', check the odds of 'No' on Predict. Usually, panic selling will push 'Yes' to be overpriced.
Hedging Position: If you have ETH spot positions that are stuck.
You can buy 'ETH below 3000 by the end of the month' Yes shares on Predict.
Result: If ETH drops, the spot loss occurs, but the prediction market earns U; if ETH rises, the spot recovers, and the prediction market pays insurance. This is an institutional-level risk control thinking.
IV. Deterministic Opportunity III: Ambush 'Misjudged' Infrastructure
——Zama and Privacy Track
Logical Deduction:
When the overall market corrects, all coins are mixed together. At this time, you need to see the actions in the primary market. Regardless of how much the secondary market drops, the trend of technological development (AI + Privacy) will not change.
Case Study: Zama (Leader in FHE Homomorphic Encryption)
Current Situation: Many people have not been able to participate in new listings due to KYC or system bugs (as you observed before).
Opportunity Point: This kind of 'systemic failure' combined with 'market crash' will lead to a temporary decrease in early project enthusiasm, not only reducing competitors but also driving away many 'paper hands'.
Operation: Keep an eye on their official follow-up NFT distribution or testnet incentives. The current calm is for future high multiples. Use multiple accounts (fingerprint browser) to ambush testnet interactions, with costs nearly zero.
V. Conclusion: Be a friend of cycles, not a slave to K-lines
Back to that tweet from Bi'an Xiaoyi, the market is always counterintuitive.
When everyone is staring at the K-line in despair, you are focusing on the points panel (Genius).
When everyone is panicking and cutting losses due to a crash, you use the prediction market (Predict) to hedge risks.
$BTC While everyone is criticizing the project party, you quietly completed the infrastructure (Zama/Solana Mobile) interaction.
Investment is not about who makes more in a bull market, but about who survives longer in a bear market (or during a flash crash). Acknowledge that the world is makeshift, but we should leverage the loopholes in this makeshift world to earn certain profits.
Risk Warning: This article is only a strategy sharing and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of GAS costs and changes in project rules when generating volume.
