The price of Solana continues with a general upward trend, but short-term risks are increasing. SOL has formed an ascending wedge since the beginning of the month, a pattern that often anticipates a correction.
Despite the strong participation of investors, this scenario suggests a possible drop that could weaken the recent bullish efforts.
Solana holders are facing off against each other
The on-chain activity shows strong growth of the network. Since the beginning of the month, the number of addresses making transactions on Solana has notably increased. At its peak, more than 8 million new addresses joined the network in just 24 hours.
This increase signals strong demand for SOL. New addresses typically bring fresh capital, which boosts liquidity and network usage. This growth reflects the appeal of the Solana ecosystem, driven by DeFi activity, memecoins, and high-performance applications that attract new participants.
Despite the increasing use of the network, macroeconomic momentum shows a different reality. Data from the Exchange Net Position Change indicates that current holders have greater influence on price action. Buying pressure from long-term participants has weakened, offsetting the impact of new capital inflows.
As buying momentum decreases, selling pressure begins to dominate. This shift shows that established SOL holders are reducing their exposure or preparing to sell.
When existing supply exceeds new demand, prices tend to weaken, increasing the likelihood of a bearish breakout from the current structure.
The price of Solana is trading around 144 dollars at the time of writing this article, moving within an ascending wedge formed in recent days. This bearish continuation pattern projects a potential decline of 9.5%, which would place the downside target near 129 dollars if the structure resolves downward.
The projected decline coincides with the weakening of momentum indicators. A confirmed breakout would likely push SOL towards 136 dollars initially.
If that support is lost, the 130 dollar level would be exposed, where buyers could attempt to stabilize the price amidst overall market caution.
Still, the bearish scenario is not guaranteed. If investor sentiment improves and selling pressure decreases, SOL could recover from the lower trend line of the wedge. A move above 146 dollars would signal renewed strength.
An additional advance could lead Solana to 151 dollars, invalidating the bearish outlook.
