Complete market analysis I share with you!
This is an analysis with our personal tools and does not constitute financial advice, only for educational purposes & contribution to the community!
Asset: BTC/USDT $BTC
Current Price: $95,080.00 ▼ $
Local Trend: Bearish (Corrective)
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
* Market Structure:
* Order Blocks (OB): A bearish mitigation OB is identified in the $97,200 - $98,500 range. The price has reacted downwards after failing to consolidate the psychological level of $100k.
* Fair Value Gaps (FVG): There is a liquidity gap (FVG) pending to fill in the range of $93,400 - $94,200. The price tends to seek these areas of inefficiency.
* Liquidity: External liquidity accumulated below the lows of $93,000 (Sell-side Liquidity).
* Moving Averages (EMAs):
* EMA 8/21: A bearish crossover detected on the 1H timeframe. The price is trading below both, now acting as dynamic resistance.
* EMA 200 (Macro): It remains on an upward slope (approx. $84,500), indicating that the overall trend remains bullish, but we are in a necessary retracement phase.
* Itaku Algorithms (NWE & Smoother):
* (NWE): The price has pierced the upper band and is returning to the center of the channel. Signal of immediate bullish momentum exhaustion.
* Itaku Smoother: Has changed from green to neutral/gray, confirming the loss of buying momentum.
* Oscillators & Volume:
* RSI: It is at 46.20, exiting the overbought zone. It has space to fall to 30-35 before finding a technical floor.
* MACD: Histogram in negative territory with a bearish signal line crossover.
* VWAP: The price is trading below the weekly VWAP, reinforcing the intraday bearish bias.
MARKET ANALYSIS
* Sentiment (Whale Watch): Significant whale movements have been detected towards exchanges (Binance and Coinbase) in the last 4 hours. The "Fear & Greed Index" remains in "Extreme Greed" (82), which historically precedes corrections of 5-10%.
* Macro Context: Massive profit-taking near $100,000 is the main catalyst. Asian markets show caution regarding the strength of the dollar (DXY).
* Relevant News:
Cointelegraph:* Reports liquidations of long positions worth $200M in the last 24h.
Bloomberg:* Analysts suggest that BTC needs a solid base in the $90k-$92k range before the final assault on six digits.
RISK MANAGEMENT
ScanVolatility: Volatility is HIGH (8.4/10). The algorithm detects erratic movements near $95k.
Suggested Trade Setup:
* Bias: Short-term bearish / Long-term bullish.
* Suggested Entry (SHORT Scalp): If the price breaks with a candle body above $94,800.
* Target 1: $93,500 (FVG filling).
* Target 2: $91,800 (Daily bullish OB).
* Stop Loss (SL): $97,150 (Above the last local high and EMA 21).
* Maximum Leverage: 10x.
* Risk: 1% of capital (Amount adjusted to account size).
RECOMMENDATION (NEUTRAL)
Reason: Although the immediate trend is bearish (▼), BTC is in a psychological support zone ($95,000). Entering SHORT now has an unfavorable Risk/Reward ratio due to the proximity of liquidity at $94k. Entering LONG is premature as RSI and MACD do not yet show bullish divergences.
Projection of the next candle (4H): Bearish with absorption wick. It is expected to test $94,200 before any recovery attempt.
Patience in trading is the difference between being liquidity or providing it!
Terminal Resistance Trading!