📊 U.S. Manufacturing & Trade Report Shows Mixed Signals

New data from the U.S. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report (October 2025) shows the economy sending conflicting signals — a blend of strength and caution. (Census.gov)

📉 Slower Sales, But Still Growing Year‑Over‑Year

Combined distributive trade sales + manufacturers’ shipments: ~$1.94 trillion in October

• Down ~0.2% from September

• Up ~3.5% from October 2024

This suggests recent softness month‑to‑month, but underlying annual growth remains intact. (Census.gov)

📦 Inventories Climb

Business inventories: up ~0.3% from September

Inventories also higher year‑over‑year

Rising inventories can signal slower demand or stockpiling ahead of uncertainty — both influence trade dynamics. (Census.gov)

⚖️ Mixed Manufacturing Signals

Two key readings paint different pictures:

• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI: Slightly above expansion territory, pointing to modest growth in activity and new orders. (Trading Economics)

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: Below 50 — indicating contraction in traditional factory activity amid tariff uncertainty and softer orders. (Forex Factory)

🔍 Market Takeaway

✅ Annual activity still structurally higher

❌ Month‑to‑month sales contraction & inventory buildup

⚠️ Manufacturing surveys diverging (some show expansion, others contraction)

This mix reflects ongoing adjustments in U.S. trade and industrial sectors — influenced by tariffs, supply chains, and global demand shifts.

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