An error that cost $40,000 dollars is not something that is easy to digest. This is what happens when conviction surpasses reality.
We have a new case of a new bettor in #Polymarket , where some believed it to be a #insider , some soldier or people close to #TRUMP , but the reality was different. What happened? Why did people think it was an "insider"? Let's explore.
This is how the events unfolded, on January 14, 2026, a user creates an account and wallet on Polymarket, calling himself Mutualdelta.
As if he were an expert and knew what he was doing, he enters with a single conviction, everything points to the Middle Eastern market on Polymarket. There was no diversification in other bets as such.
The start of his daring adventure
This is how once the account was created on Polymarket, Mutualdelta began to buy positions, betting that the United States would attack Iran on January 14, 2026. The total bet amounted to $40,000.
If the information he had was correct and his prediction came true, this user would earn $255,000; otherwise, he would lose all his money.
Keeping pace
Just when he buys, some users get carried away by this big bet and start buying positions in this same market. Thus, at some point, Mutualdelta's position rose to $63,000, almost $20,000 in profit if he sold his position, this due to the massive buying by other users in this market. But that wasn't the case, as he trusted that his prediction would come true.
Mutualdelta was not covering its risks. He bet everything on a specific day, assuming that headlines would turn into missiles before dawn.
And for a few hours, it seemed inevitable: the tweets were fleeting, Trump's statements suggested he was going to do it. The sources whispered, and everything pointed to an imminent attack.
The fateful outcome
But nothing happened.
Thus, Mutualdelta lost $40,000 in a few hours.
Initially, due to Mutualdelta's buying behavior, many observers rushed to label his wallet, assuming he had insider information.
The moment was too precise, the size too large, surely this person knew something.
In reality, it was something much more common in prediction markets: a habitual gambler who confuses a message with immediate action and urgency with certainty.
What did Mutualdelta do wrong?
Depositing $40,000 in a single bet was a wrong move
Mutualdelta started betting when the market had a 3-hour window left (that is, if nothing happened in those three hours, he lost)
Another mistake is the lack of understanding of how Polymarket works, as there are rules in each market regarding the time of the bet and how a winning side is declared.
The mere act of betting in this prediction market, you already know what you are facing. That is why before diving in to try, one must conduct their due research, and if you want to try, you can do so with small amounts.
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