Ethereum (ETH) confirmed a significant technical breakout after surpassing with volume the neckline of a large-scale cup and handle pattern. The structure projects a theoretical target in the $4,000 zone, but the current context requires scenario-based analysis, not certainty.

📈 What validates the breakout

Breakout above $3,300, a zone that acted as dynamic resistance for weeks

Downward-sloping neckline, indicating progressive absorption of supply (higher-quality breakout)

Increase in buying volume, sign of real participation and not just liquidity sweep

📐 Technical projection of the pattern: $4,000 – $4,050, based on the full depth of the "cup".

⚠️ Short-term risk: momentum divergence

On the 12H chart, a bearish divergence in RSI is observed:

The price marks higher local highs

RSI does not confirm with new highs

This does not invalidate the trend, but it does suggest a probability of pause or tactical retracement before a clean continuation.

📌 To neutralize this risk:

ETH must maintain sustained closes above $3,360 – $3,380

Ideally with RSI regaining positive slope

A loss of this zone would open the door to a throwback toward the $3,250 – $3,200 region, still healthy within an uptrend scenario.

🔗 On-chain reading: high profits, low sales

On-chain data brings balance to technical analysis:

NUPL of short-term holders at 2-month highs → more positions "in the green"

However, spent coins (30–60 days) have dropped nearly 80% from their recent peak

👉 Interpretation:

There are unrealized gains, but no aggressive distribution. Recent participants are maintaining exposure, reducing immediate selling pressure.

🧭 Key scenarios

Base scenario (controlled uptrend):

ETH is consolidating above $3,300

Pause / technical retracement → continuation toward $3,800 and then $4,000

Alternative scenario (cooling):

Rejection below $3,380

Pullback to $3,250 – $3,200

Revalidation of structure before attempting new highs

Invalidation:

Clear close below $3,150

Failed breakout of the pattern → structural shift to neutral

🧠 Conclusion

The breakout is technically legitimate, but the market still needs digestion of momentum. The $4,000 level is on the table, not as a promise, but as a conditional result of structure, liquidity, and price discipline.

In professional markets, strong breakouts do not always continue in a straight line.

The question is not whether ETH can reach $4,000.

The question is from where and with what validations.

#ETH #Ethereum #CryptoMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis #BinanceSquare