Bitcoin is in a decisive phase of the current cycle, with its price holding above $96,000. The Bitcoin bull trap has become the center of debate, as the market evaluates whether this move represents a genuine rally or a misleading signal before a significant correction.
Recent price behavior has brought attention back to key technical levels and comparisons with previous cycles, raising contrasting scenarios that warrant detailed analysis before drawing conclusions.
Bitcoin in a decisive technical zone
The Bitcoin bull trap describes a move that appears strong but ultimately traps buyers before a downturn. Currently, BTC has shown resilience by recovering and holding the $95,000 zone, a level closely watched by technical analysts.
From a technical analysis perspective, Ted Pillows notes that the next key level lies at $97,500, corresponding to the 50-week exponential moving average. A sustained close above this level could enable an advance toward the $102,000 to $103,000 range.
In a similar vein, Michaël van de Poppe highlights that Bitcoin's rally maintains an uptrend structure on lower timeframes, as long as the current support is preserved.
"The trend is clearly upward on lower timeframes, and we will likely see a test of resistance at $100,000. If this breaks, a new all-time high will be reached in February," said Michaël van de Poppe.
Other analysts, such as CryptOpus, observe that the price continues to rise while holders reduce selling pressure. This behavior suggests an expansion phase where demand absorbs supply, a characteristic historically associated with more sustainable bullish moves within the Bitcoin cycle.
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Not all analysts share the optimistic view. Philakone compares the current structure to that of 2022, when Bitcoin was rejected between the Fibonacci levels of 0.236 and 0.382 after a prolonged consolidation. According to his reading, a similar pattern could be forming, reigniting the risk of a Bitcoin bull trap.
From a cyclical perspective, Chiefy warns that the current behavior resembles the setup observed in 2021. Under this logic, a drop toward $40,000 would not be ruled out if the four-year cycle repeats.
"Most people are not prepared for what's coming," warned Chiefy.
Lofty reinforces this view, pointing out that a bull trap could precede a deeper drop toward $32,000 during February.
Additional analysis adds important nuances. Arnau Catalist identifies the "zone of truth" between $97,000 and $109,000. Consolidating above this zone would favor a new all-time high, while rejection would open a more complex scenario.
Meanwhile, GranMago highlights that pending liquidity is concentrated between $87,000 and $90,000, levels the price may target before a definitive resolution.
In summary
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture where technical strength signals and cyclical warnings converge. A sustained breakout above resistance could validate a legitimate rally within the current cycle.
However, failing to maintain these levels would strengthen the bearish trap scenario for Bitcoin, with possible significant corrections. The coming weeks will be decisive in defining the market's direction.
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