It's already 2026. Logically, the story of NFTs should have turned the page long ago.
NFTs that were once auctioned for sky-high prices have now mostly become small pictures that no one cares about. Many NFT project teams are struggling to exit amidst a wave of transformation, sales, and shutdowns. The once top-tier event NFT Paris has also recently sadly announced its suspension and is even embroiled in refund disputes.
During several consecutive years of downward cycles, hot money exited, narratives failed, and 'NFT is dead' seemed to have become a market consensus.
However, in the week of 2026, the NFT market unexpectedly showed signs of recovery, with prices rising and trading volume warming up. Are NFTs really back? What are the players who are still holding on in the market currently playing?
A good start to the new year, price increases feel 'like a world apart'
Entering 2026, the long-silent NFT market has finally stirred a long-lost ripple.
According to data from CoinGecko, since the beginning of 2026, the overall market value of the NFT market has increased by over 220 million dollars in the past week. Data from NFT Price Floor further shows that in the past week, hundreds of NFT projects have seen price rebounds, with some projects even recording three to four-digit increases. For players who have experienced consecutive years of downturns, the fantasy has long been shattered, and this market seems like a different world.
Although this is just a drop in the bucket compared to historical highs, compared to the freezing point at the end of 2025, the long-lost green market still provides some comfort to the players who have held on.
However, unveiling the veil of price increases, the current market rebound resembles a game among a very limited range of existing funds, rather than a true recovery brought by incremental funds. The extreme lack of liquidity is a fatal wound that the current market cannot ignore.
From the perspective of weekly transaction volume, among more than 1700 NFT projects, only 6 have transaction volumes reaching one million dollars, 14 have transaction volumes in the hundreds of thousands, and only 72 are in the tens of thousands range. Overall, this is very rare. Even for the top projects with relatively high transaction volumes, the number of actively traded NFTs accounts for only a single-digit percentage of the total supply, and the transaction number of the vast majority of NFTs is only in single digits or even zero.
In fact, The Block's 2025 report also shows that the NFT market did not see strong re-entry funds throughout the year, speculative enthusiasm has significantly cooled, and the multi-chain flourishing situation has returned to an Ethereum-dominated landscape. The total transaction volume for the year dropped to 5.5 billion dollars, a decrease of about 37% compared to 2024, while the total market value of NFTs plummeted from about 9 billion dollars to about 2.4 billion dollars.
These data indicate that the so-called warming has not changed the fact that the NFT market has long been extinguished. Today's NFTs have long been reduced to 'old assets,' with only old players trapped within, while new funds have long stopped investing.
The great escape and survival, funds flowing into new battlefields
In this long, deep winter cold wave, from infrastructure to blue-chip projects, different forms of survival stories are unfolding.
For example, the leading trading platform OpenSea is no longer fixated on JPEG images but is transitioning its token trading business through airdrop incentives; the once-mainstream NFT public chain Flow is beginning to explore DeFi growth points; Zora has abandoned the traditional NFT model and shifted to a new track of 'content as a token'; even the iconic NFT Paris event has been canceled due to lack of funds and is said to be unable to refund sponsorship fees, revealing the industry's predicament.
Even those top NFTs that still have a glimmer of vitality have fallen into the strange circle of 'applauding but not buying.' The success of brand influence has not translated into a price moat. For example, although Pudgy Penguins has successfully built IP recognition in the mainstream world and physical toys are selling hotly, it still cannot escape the pull of falling floor prices and token values.
The resolute withdrawal of Web2 giants like Reddit stopping NFT services and Nike selling its subsidiary RTFKT has further shattered the last fantasy of mainstream adoption in the market.
However, the decline of NFTs does not mean the disappearance of collection and speculation demand; funds have simply shifted to a new battlefield. Compared to virtual images on-chain, the physical markets of trendy toys and cards outside the circle are still being hyped, such as Pokémon TCG with a transaction volume exceeding 1 billion dollars and revenue over 100 million dollars.
Not only ordinary collectors, but even crypto elites have begun to vote with their feet, returning to physical assets and top collectibles.
For example, crypto artist Beeple has turned his attention to creating physical robots, and the released robot dogs of celebrities like Musk were sold out; Wintermute co-founder Yoann Turpin jointly invested 5 million dollars to purchase dinosaur fossils; Animoca founder Yat Siu splurged 9 million dollars to acquire a Stradivari violin; and Tron founder Justin Sun bought a high-priced banana artwork (Comedian) for 6.2 million dollars.
In the current market environment, ordinary investors need to face the reality of NFT liquidity depletion more seriously.
Goodbye to the logic of small images, these NFTs are more popular
After experiencing the baptism of the bubble burst, the NFT market has not fallen into a complete depletion of funds, but rather flows towards targets with high profit-loss ratios or clear value support.
Speculation and arbitrage demand: Some players believe the market has bottomed out and buy through capturing price mismatches for short-term wave operations, which carries a high risk-reward ratio.
"Golden Shovel" attribute: This is currently the most participated and liquid NFT in the market. The essence of this type of NFT is no longer collectibles, but financial certificates for obtaining future token airdrops, mostly meaning obtaining airdrop/whitelist qualifications. However, the expectation of landing often leads to negative sentiment, and once the snapshot is completed or the airdrop is distributed, if the project party does not give the NFT new empowerment, the floor price often plummets rapidly, even to zero. Therefore, this type of NFT is more suitable as a short-term investment or arbitrage tool rather than a long-term value storage.
Celebrity/top project endorsement: The value of this type of NFT relies on attention economy drive. Celebrity or top project endorsements often significantly enhance visibility and liquidity, creating short-term premiums. For example, the top DEX HyperLiquid's NFT series Hypurr NFT, which was airdropped to early users, rose sharply after its launch; Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently changed his avatar to Milady NFT, and its floor price clearly surged.
Top IP: This type of NFT has often moved beyond simple speculation, with investment logic leaning more towards cultural recognition and collectible value. Prices are relatively resistant to decline and have long-term value storage functions, such as CryptoPunks, which were officially incorporated into the permanent collection of the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) at the end of last year.
Acquisition narrative: When a project is acquired by a more powerful investor, the market will reprice it, with expectations that its IP monetization capability and brand moat will be strengthened, thereby driving prices upward. For example, both Pudgy Penguins and Moonbirds saw significant price increases after being acquired.
Combining real-world assets: By linking real assets to the blockchain, NFTs can gain clear physical value support while reducing downside risks and enhancing off-chain capabilities. For example, the recently popular Pokémon card tokenization platforms Collector Crypt and Courtyard allow users to trade ownership of cards/items on-chain, with the physical items being held by the platform.
Practical functionality: NFTs are returning to their utility attributes, serving specific application scenarios, such as NFT tickets, voting rights for DAO decision-making, and AI identities on-chain (such as Ethereum ERC-8004 launching NFT-based AI agent identities), etc.
From this perspective, compared to chasing meaningless small images, NFTs with actual utility or clear upward expectations are gradually becoming the focus of funds.
#zora #PudgyPenguins #Moonbirds #milady
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