🚨 FED WATCH — MARKETS ON EDGE 🚨
The Fed may be doing nothing for now… but markets definitely aren’t calm.
Fresh FedWatch data shows investors mostly expect no rate change at the next meeting — yet pressure is quietly building beneath the surface.
Market Expectations January Meeting • ✅ ~88%: No change
• 🔻 ~12%: 25 bps cut
March Meeting • 🔻 ~40%: 25 bps cut
• ⏸ ~55%: No change
• ⚠️ ~4%: 50 bps cut
Looks stable on paper…
But expectations are shifting fast.
Why It Matters Markets don’t wait for the Fed — they move first.
Even without action: • 💵 Dollar losing momentum
• Volatility rising
• Risk assets positioning early
• Liquidity expectations moving prices
This is how big moves begin: quietly.
Real Signal The Fed is paused.
Traders aren’t.
Capital is rotating.
Positions are adjusting.
History shows:
By the time the Fed reacts, the big trade is usually already crowded.
⚠️ Bottom Line This isn’t boredom — it’s compression.
And compression leads to expansion.
Stay alert.
Watch positioning, not speeches.
Feels like the calm before a macro shift.
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