What the market expects / forecasts
Most traders expect a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting.
Probability of that cut is very high according to futures & FedWatch tools.
Some analysts foresee multiple cuts in 2025—Morgan Stanley, for example, expects three cuts this year.
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⚡ Key risks / caveats
Inflation staying “sticky” could force the Fed to move more cautiously and delay cuts.
If the labor market weakens sharply, that could accelerate cuts — but it might also introduce recession risks.
Markets may “sell the news” — i.e. stocks might decline even if a cut arrives, depending on the signal about the economic outlook.
