Predicting the Bottom Range of ETH in the Current Bear Cycle

In this cycle, ETH clearly shows weakness compared to BTC. There is almost no individual wave, no leading story, and the price has quickly entered a low accumulation zone. However, this has transformed ETH back into a state of being a "gradually accumulated asset", rather than a short-term speculative tool.

At the current moment, ETH can begin DCA, but it is advisable to use a maximum of about 30% of total capital, prioritizing a pyramid order strategy to manage risk.

The larger context remains that BTC is in the middle stage of the bear market. Although the possibility of BTC dropping another 50% is low, we cannot completely rule out a negative scenario. In extreme cases, BTC could drop to the range of 3.8–4.0W, while a more reasonable scenario is not breaking below 5W.

For ETH, if it only follows BTC without being "further depressed in valuation", based on historical correlation:

• Relatively positive scenario: 1,600 – 1,700 USD

• Negative but still reasonable scenario: 1,200 – 1,400 USD

Notably, this is also the core bottom range of the previous bear cycle, where long-term capital began to flow back in.

👉 Summary: ETH is not yet for all-in, but has entered a zone where it can be patiently accumulated, with strict capital discipline and long-term expectations.