🚨 Breaking: The probability of a U.S. government shutdown at the end of the month has surged to 74%! Crypto market alarm triggered
According to The Wall Street Journal, due to another fatal shooting incident in Minnesota, Senate Democrats have made a hard stance: they would rather let most government agencies shut down than vote in favor of a funding proposal that includes immigration enforcement funding.
📊 Key Data: Surge in Shutdown Probability
- Prediction platform Polymarket shows that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of January has surged to 74%.
- Funding for most federal departments, including the Department of Homeland Security, will run out by January 30.
⚡️ Event Trigger
On January 24 local time, a shooting incident involving immigration enforcement occurred in Minneapolis, resulting in the death of a U.S. citizen. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer stated that this incident is "unacceptable in any city in America" and made it clear that if the funding bill includes funds for the Department of Homeland Security, Democrats will block its passage.
📉 Potential Impact on the Crypto Market
Historical experience shows that the political uncertainty and tightening liquidity brought by a government shutdown often exacerbate volatility in risk assets in the short term. The market may face:
- Surge in Policy Uncertainty: Key economic data releases may be delayed, affecting Federal Reserve decision-making expectations.
- Tightening Liquidity Environment: A pause in fiscal spending may temporarily withdraw liquidity from the market.
- Heightened Risk Aversion: Some funds may choose to wait and see, exacerbating market volatility.
🔍 Worth Noting
- If this shutdown occurs, it will be the first major political deadlock of the fiscal year 2026, just over two months after the previous record shutdown ended at 43 days.
- Although some analysts believe the impact of this shutdown may be less than in 2025, the sharp division between the two parties on immigration issues adds uncertainty to the negotiation prospects.
The market is in a sensitive period, and any macro-level "black swan" event could be amplified. Investors are advised to closely monitor subsequent developments and manage position risks.
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