Friends, I am Chen Xi. Stop scrolling, take a moment! The ETH 1-hour candlestick chart you see is telling a story that everyone should understand. If you are still hesitating whether to enter or exit, then every word I am about to say will be a key basis for your decision-making.
📈 Core structure: Bulls and bears have entered the 'suffocation zone'
From the chart, it is clear that ETH's current price (3193.60) is stuck at an extremely critical 'sandwich layer':
Upper pressure: In the short term, EMA7 (3200.78) and EMA30 (3250.72) have formed a death cross and constitute the first resistance wall, with stronger pressure located at the Bollinger middle track 3261.48 and the previous high 3446.12. It can be said that the 3250-3260 area is the 'confidence threshold' that bulls must recover.
Support below: The lower Bollinger Band at 3113.26 is the current lifeline, and it combines with the psychological barrier at 3100 to form a core defense zone. If it breaks down with volume, the structure will weaken.
🛠️ In-depth technical interpretation: Bears are losing strength, but bulls have not yet exerted force
Trend signal: EMA7 crosses below EMA30, and the price is below all short-term moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend is dominated by bears, which is an objective fact.
Key changes: But please note! The MACD (-15.57) green bars have begun to grow, although the DIF (-30.63) and DEA (-22.85) are below zero, the bearish momentum shows signs of weakening, which is a potential precursor to a 'bottom divergence' that requires close attention.
Volatility alert: The Bollinger Bands (3113.26 - 3409.70) are clearly narrowing, indicating that volatility is about to expand, and a trend change may occur at any time.
🔗 Calm observation of on-chain and news aspects
On-chain data shows significant address accumulation behavior in the 3100-3200 range over the past week, indicating that 'smart money' is willing to hold in this range.
The macro news front is currently calm, lacking a dominant narrative. This calm often precedes the storm, so be sure to fasten your seatbelt.
🎯 My personal view and deduction
I will directly give my conclusion: I am not bearish here; I see it as a process of forming a 'golden pit'!
Although short-term bears dominate, the critical support zone (3113-3100) has not been broken, and bearish momentum (MACD green bars) has shown signs of fatigue. I believe the market is using fluctuations to consume the last panic selling; once confirmed in the support zone, a rebound targeting 3260 (mid-line) or even 3400 (upper line) will quickly unfold.
The key is: Can it hold 3113? If yes, then it will accumulate momentum to rise; if not, it will deeply retrace. I will closely monitor these two positions.
💎 A final piece of advice
Trading is not about betting on direction, but about planning and adapting. I am currently extremely focused because I know that every K-line in the next phase could determine the pattern.
If you think my analysis is clear, direct, and logical, please follow me. I will continue to share my real-time interpretations and key point deductions, so we can see clearly, stand firm, and hold on in this market together.
📌 Interactive topic: Do you think ETH will test 3113 first, or break through 3260 first? Leave your thoughts in the comments, and let’s witness together!
