I won't specify the exact targets; those who understand, understand.
The 'de-leveraging' of faith
If last year's 12.6 in the second half was the peak of emotional revelry, then the current 6 is a 'de-leveraging of faith'.
Many newcomers are feeling fear at this position, saying this industry is finished.
Don't worry, it has already happened many times.
But for veterans who have experienced several cycles, the crash is not accidental; it is a 'perfect storm' woven together by policies, personnel, and macro logic.
We don't need to panic; what we need is a systematic breakdown: what exactly happened, and where the real opportunities lie?
The convergence of three cold currents
The reason this wave of pullback is so fierce is that three originally independent forces resonate at the same time.
'Hard money' faction in power: Walsh shockwave
The nomination of Kevin Walsh to succeed the Federal Reserve Chair.
This 'hawk among hawks' advocates for hard currency policies, overturning the market's expectations for continued interest rate cuts in the coming years.
With the dollar strengthening, all risk assets are reshaping pricing logic.
The 'cold water' of strategic reserves
The negative remarks from Treasury Secretary Basant regarding the 'cake strategy reserve' shattered the market's most seductive narrative in the short term.
When the expected 'national-level buying' falls through, the profit-taking funds start to sell-off.
The global hedge of trade war 2.0
With the dust settling on EU tariffs, global trade uncertainty has surged.
Funds are flowing out of high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies and back into cash havens, which is a typical global macro hedge behavior.
The truth behind 5.4 billion dollars
After breaking 7.4, it entered the 'mechanical liquidation' phase.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network exceeded 2.5 billion dollars.
The current decline has long departed from fundamentals, more due to a liquidity dry-up caused by a chain liquidation.
This kind of market often produces highly attractive 'price valleys'.
That's right, I mean the batting range has arrived, and we can start dollar-cost averaging.
Where will this year's low be?
In this land of sorrow, many are asking where the bottom is.
Based on trading observations and macro trend analysis, my answer: around 5 to 5.8.
This is the bottom range before the previous cycle started.
From a technical perspective, this is a deep pullback level at the weekly level, with buying support.
I think this is a watershed moment.
Entering this range means that market panic has been released by over 90%.
Reaching this position, don’t hesitate, it is absolutely worth partially bottom-fishing in the golden zone.
The essence of trading is to use others' emotions to pay for one's own cognition.
While everyone talks about dreams at 120,000, we must see the risks; when retail investors say 30 at 60, we must see the opportunities.
Stay awake amidst the fear
This position is a temporary low point, not the end.
The position I mentioned is the real battlefield.
The current pullback is to wash away the indecisive leverage and bring the market back to a healthy trajectory.
Oranges never let anyone down, except those who let them down.
As traders, we do not predict storms, we only wait for the most certain point in the storm.
I am here waiting for the wind to come.
Welcome to the 'Beyond the Realm'
Investors in the AI era are already here, waiting for you to join.
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