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🚨 TOTAL3ESBTC 1M - Institutional Analysis
professional analysis update
The TOTAL3ESBTC index, which represents the relationship between the total market cap of altcoins (excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins) priced in Bitcoin, is currently around $0.3117, consolidated in a compression phase after years of a downtrend, with the main downtrend line (LTB) intact since September 2021.
The monthly chart reveals an increasingly tight consolidation within a range between key supports at 0.25-0.30 and descending diagonal resistances, suggesting an imminent expansion of volatility.

#total
VPeople keep saying we’re in a bear market for crypto… I disagree. What we’re seeing is a macro-scale pullback, not a collapse.

On the 4-day Total Market Cap chart, the low for 2025 printed on 11 / 01 / 2025 at $3.21 T, lining up perfectly with the 0.318 Fib extension and forming a strong liquidity grab before reversing higher.
The previous high sits near $4.27 T, which remains the key level to reclaim for full-trend confirmation.

Between $3.65 T and $3.24 T, we’ve got a clear liquidity zone — essentially a re-accumulation range where smart money accumulates before the next leg up. Notice how price wicked deep into that pocket, then bounced immediately; that’s textbook spring action, the same pattern that marks the end of most mid-cycle corrections.

From here:

The first major Fibonacci retracement to watch is the 0.382 at $3.62 T — holding above this keeps momentum intact.

The 0.5 level (~$3.74 T) is the first confirmation zone for a bullish retest.

A breakout through 0.618 (~$3.87 T) would likely open the path back to the $4.17–4.27 T region and, eventually, the golden zone around $4.44 T.

Overall In my Opinion

This entire move from $3.65 T → $3.21 T looks less like a bear-trend continuation and more like a long-scale accumulation phase — what Wyckoff called the “spring wick.”
Until we break below that $3.21 T low with conviction, I’m treating this as a pullback before continuation, not the end of the bull cycle.

In my opinion: it ain’t over yet baby 🔥

Between February 1-3, 2025, the largest liquidation event in crypto history occurred in terms of quantity, if not proportionally.

I know, many of our friends only follow the price of their own coins/tokens, but it is difficult to make predictions about our own assets without understanding the general outlook and direction of the market and liquidity.

Now let's look at the general outlook. 👀

👉 #TOTAL

There is no problem on the weekly view. The previous peak has been retested and the rising trend is maintained. Although the $2.29T level is the first support below the trend, of course we do not want the market, which has been in sidelines for a long time, to make deeper corrections and become even more annoying.

On the daily chart, we are watching the accumulation movement in the range between the upper red box and the lower green box. In the last decline, the liquidation of the range bottom was swept, including the liquidation block that I showed with the blue semicircle, and it entered the range by bouncing back above the green box. The lower limit of the green box also corresponds to almost 50% of the wick of the daily decline candle, and is important in this respect.

Normally, if we do not see an immediate recovery with a big V bounce after such deep declines, first the middle of the wick, then the lowest end of the wick can be targeted again. It is important to follow the course here. Staying above the green box first targets the green box in the middle, then the red box above, but if we are going to see another liquidation event beforehand, it is important to follow the levels I marked on the wick and not to see a daily candle closing below $2.80T.

The biggest issue that bothered me in this decline was that $BTC remained limited to the decline side along with the market in general and didn't wicked the lower part that I have been referring to as a garbage liquidation block for weeks. Therefore, the decline remained largely an operation on the $ETH and #altcoins side.

Also, if $BTC cannot break this large accumulation area that I have put in this gray box and make a new ATH, altcoins that are already suffering enough would get even worse in a movement that can be seen towards this liquidation block below. Because there is a serious percentage decrease margin here and this area does not offer good price action and cannot be considered as a serious support, and if the support here does not work, there is a deep cliff to the previous peak level. Anyway, I do not want to talk about these for now.

I hope this scenario does not happen and the liquidations at lower levels are left for another spring or the next bear season. Because we are at important levels for the #altseason we desire. For this, do not forget to take a look at the #TOTAL2 , ETHBTC and other analyses that I will publish later.