Don't rush to shout reversal, Bitcoin now looks more like a "digestive period" rather than before takeoff.
The latest technical perspective shows:
BTC fell below the key structural level, and overall is still operating within a correction channel. One core reference indicator has been repeatedly validated—21-week moving average.
📉 Why is the 21-week moving average so crucial?
In historical market cycles:
Bull market phase: it is the "lifeline" that follows the trend.
Before risks arrive: it often loses support first, giving an early warning.
This round of movement is also very typical👇
In the fourth quarter, it fell below the 21-week moving average → the correction logic was confirmed.
Although there was a rebound in late December, it was pressed back as soon as it touched that moving average.
The price has never been able to stabilize above it again.
📌 What does this indicate?
👉 The market has not entered a new round of major upward movement.
👉 Currently, it looks more like a structural correction of previous gains.
⚡ So, is there an opportunity?
Yes, but to be clear:
In the short term, we do not rule out technical and tactical rebounds,
but so far, there is a lack of hard signals supporting "sustained increases."
🧠 My core view:
This is a stage that tests patience.
For bulls, before regaining the key moving average, it's too early to talk about trend reversal;
For bears, one must also guard against sudden emotional rebounds.
In summary👇
Current BTC is more suitable for "waiting for structural confirmation,"
rather than getting carried away by emotions.
Surviving is always more important than being the first to jump.
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