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BTC is bouncing back to ~70,000 USD, volume is surging but the order book tells a different story: Whales are not chasing prices up, they are waiting to accumulate at lower levels!

🔴 “Dead Zone” 50,000 USD – Ultimate Support from Big Boys:
🔶 Passive buy order 18.82M USD hanging for 267 days, non-cancellable.
🔶 Just added an additional 12.19M USD → Total >31M USD ambushing here. → This is the 'final barrier' that sharks believe the price will test again to accumulate cheaply.
Multi-Layer Support Matrix (Layer Trap):

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Bitcoin has taken a sharp hit over the past week, sliding nearly 20% to trade around $65,976, far below its recent highs. The pullback has erased billions in market value and once again highlighted a hard truth about crypto markets: large flows still move prices fast.

As volatility ripples through global markets, attention has shifted to one dominant player — Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. With such a massive share of supply concentrated in a single balance sheet, even the possibility of selling raises an uncomfortable question:

How much selling can Bitcoin really absorb?

Strategy’s Expanding Grip on Bitcoin Supply

Strategy currently holds 713,502 BTC, valued at roughly $54 billion — about 3.4% of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply. In simple terms, the company controls one out of every 29 bitcoins in existence.

Its largest purchase came in January 2026, when Strategy acquired 22,305 BTC in a single transaction, financed through $2.1 billion in stock and preferred share sales. This move reinforced management’s long-term commitment under its ambitious 42/42 Plan, which targets $84 billion in capital raised by 2027 to further expand its Bitcoin position.

That level of concentration means Strategy isn’t just a participant in the market — it’s a structural force.

Recent Price Action Shows How Fragile Liquidity Can Be

Bitcoin’s latest drawdown offers a real-time stress test. During one of the sharpest single-day drops on record, BTC plunged from around $73,100 to nearly $62,400, a decline of almost 15%.

The shock didn’t stop there. Crypto-linked equities were hit hard:

Strategy shares fell from ~$120 to ~$102 after hours

The stock is now down more than 70% year over year

This episode made one thing clear: when selling accelerates, short-term demand struggles to keep up.

The Balance Sheet Pressure Is Real

The sell-off has dramatically reshaped Strategy’s financial picture.

Q4 operating loss: $17.4 billion

Net loss to shareholders: $12.6 billion

Average BTC cost basis: ~$76,052

Just months ago, Strategy was sitting on an unrealized gain of roughly $31 billion. Today, that has flipped into an unrealized loss exceeding $9.2 billion. While these losses are unrealized, they place Strategy’s exposure firmly under the microscope.

Scenario Analysis: What If Strategy Starts Selling?

1️⃣ Minor Selling — Still Market Moving

A sale of just 1% of Strategy’s holdings would release roughly 7,100 BTC into the market. Even this modest amount exceeds average daily net inflows on many major exchanges.

A 3% sale (~21,000 BTC) would effectively mirror the company’s record January purchase — but in reverse. Such flows could:

Increase volatility

Widen bid-ask spreads

Push prices toward recent support levels

Even “small” moves matter at this scale.

2️⃣ Mid-Range Sales — Liquidity Stress Test

A 5–10% sale would introduce 35,000 to 71,000 BTC into circulation — volumes comparable to those seen during Bitcoin’s recent 15% crash.

Under similar conditions, markets could face:

Cascading liquidations

Forced selling from leveraged traders

Rapid downside acceleration

In this scenario, discussions of Bitcoin revisiting $30,000 would no longer sound extreme. The key question becomes whether spot demand could absorb that shock without deeper losses.

3️⃣ Large-Scale Liquidation — Market Destabilization

A 20% sale would mean over 140,000 BTC hitting the market. A 50% reduction would unleash more than 350,000 BTC — volumes that would dwarf normal exchange activity.

The likely consequences:

Sudden price gaps lower

Vanishing buy-side liquidity

Extreme volatility across derivatives markets

Such a move would instantly reshape Bitcoin’s supply dynamics and severely test its ability to stabilize in the short term.

Why Forced Selling Still Looks Unlikely

Strategy’s leadership has emphasized that Bitcoin would need to fall to around $8,000 — and remain there for years — before debt servicing becomes a serious risk. That statement significantly reduces expectations of near-term forced liquidation.

Still, scale itself is risk. Even strategic rebalancing or gradual selling could send shockwaves across the market simply because no other entity holds Bitcoin in comparable size.

The Question the Market Can’t Ignore

Bitcoin was designed to be decentralized, yet today a single company controls a meaningful share of its supply. For now, Strategy remains firmly in accumulation mode. But markets don’t trade on certainty — they trade on risk awareness.

As volatility persists, one question continues to loom over every rally and every dip:

How much selling can Bitcoin absorb when one company holds this much power over supply?

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