The reason I repeatedly mention the year 2026 is that the on-chain data of Plasma has already "marked" this day.
First, let’s look at the current situation.
Since the mainnet went live, the locked scale of stablecoins on the
#Plasma chain has entered the "tens of billions of dollars range," and it's not just a single protocol that has contributed to this — the top ten addresses on the chain do not represent an extreme proportion, with funds dispersed across payment channels, protocol treasuries, and long-term staking contracts. The official dashboard shows that tokens in staking and time-lock states account for more than half of the circulation, which is why the current selling pressure in the secondary market has been kept down.
However, this "buffer" is not permanent.
According to the publicly available token schedule, starting in 2026, early staking extensions will gradually expire, and some tokens will enter a linear unlocking phase. Based on the current circulation structure, this will be the first time since Plasma went live that there is a continuous increase in circulating supply, rather than sporadic releases.
The key question is whether the demand side can keep up.
Currently, the on-chain data of Plasma is healthy:
– The settlement amount of stablecoins remains in a high-frequency, low-amount range, clearly leaning towards payment rather than speculation
– The number of active addresses and the number of settlements are growing in sync, rather than "
#TVL remaining static, with addresses idling"
– The number of staking nodes is stable, with no signs of early withdrawal
What does this mean? It means that at least before unlocking, the market is not supported by "waiting for unlocking to sell" to sustain prices.
Therefore, I prefer to view 2026 as an experiment:
If when unlocking occurs, the on-chain settlement volume can continue to absorb new supply, that will be a true value discovery;
If once unlocking happens, the on-chain data starts to weaken, then the answer given by the market will also be very direct.
Unlocking is not a verdict but a stress test button.
And Plasma is almost at the moment when it must press it.
@Plasma #plasma $XPL