$ETH The current price is in a short-term oversold area (RSI around 34, entering oversold), and the rebound is a technical correction, but the trend remains bearish (breaking down through multiple moving average supports, in a descending channel).
Support levels (potential downward targets, reference for shorting profit-taking/bullish defense):
• Strong support: $2,400 (current low, if lost will accelerate downward).
• Secondary support: $2,250 - $2,300 (recent low area, last line of defense for bulls).
• Deeper target: $2,200 or below (if it continues to break down with volume, calculating extreme downward space).
Resistance levels (rebound targets, reference for going long profit-taking/bearish defense):
• Short-term resistance: $2,600 (key neckline, if effectively broken can turn into a bullish signal).
• Secondary resistance: $2,800 - $2,900 (upper boundary of the descending channel + moving average suppression area).
• Upper target: $3,000 (psychological level, if broken may quickly fill back to 3020-3080).
Technical indicators: Oscillator oversold (favorable for short-term rebound), but moving averages and MACD are still bearish, overall neutral to bearish.
Short-term outlook (is it short or long next?):
• Leaning towards a bearish consolidation: After rebounding to 2440, if it cannot hold above 2600 with volume, there is a high probability of a "dead cat bounce" (false breakout), continuing to retest 2300-2200 support, bears still have the initiative (affected by ETF outflows and macro liquidity).
• Bullish opportunity: If it holds 2400 and breaks above 2600 (with increased trading volume), it can turn into a short-term bullish position, with rebound targets of 2800-3000. Oversold + community 82% bullish sentiment supports potential recovery.
• Time window: In the next 1-3 days, pay attention to the gains and losses of 2600, if US stocks/risk assets warm up, the rebound may increase; otherwise, it continues to be under pressure.
Overall advice: It is not advisable to heavily pursue longs or aggressively short in the short term, wait for clear breakout signals (e.g., stabilize above 2600 for long, break below 2400 for short). The medium to long-term fundamentals still lean bullish (network upgrades + institutional interest), but current selling pressure dominates. The crypto market is highly volatile, please implement strict risk control, this is not investment advice, and pay attention to real-time data and BTC correlation.
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