๐ Whatโs Going On
$BTC Bitcoin is trading around $84,000, bouncing modestly after a steep November drop.
The month-to-date loss is severe โ around -24%, putting BTC more than 30% below its all-time high near $126K.
Technicals point to $82K as key support โ this level aligns with many long-term holdersโ cost basis.
If BTC breaks decisively below $80K, analysts warn it could slide further toward $75Kโ$78K.
On the upside, resistance comes into play around $86Kโ$90K โ a break there might signal relief.
๐ Under the Surface: Macro & On-Chain
Huge ETF flows have driven a lot of the recent movement. Earlier in November, there were record outflows.
But signs of stabilization: some net inflows returned recently, hinting at repositioning rather than full panic.
Miner stress is growing: hashprice (miner revenue) hit new lows, squeezing margins and raising the risk of BTC reserves being sold.
Investor sentiment is deeply divided โ some call this โblood in the streetsโ capitulation, others still eye long-term opportunity.
๐ก Macro Risk Factors
Broader risk-off sentiment: concerns about U.S. interest-rate policy are weighing on BTC.
Historical seasonal strength in November may be misleading: longer-term data suggests the typical โNovember rallyโ isnโt as reliable as many assume.
โ ๏ธ What to Watch Next
Watch $82Kโ$80K closely โ a breakdown could open up more downside risk.
If BTC recovers to $90K, that could be a bullish inflection point.
ETF flow trends will be critical: whether inflows continue could guide the next leg.
On-chain data (such as long-term holder behavior and miner activity) will help confirm whether this is a capitulation bottom or just another correction.
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