🚨 Shutdown Risk Is Rising And Markets May Be Underpricing It

Negotiations remain stalled as the deadline draws closer, and there’s still no clear path to a deal. Political gridlock is deepening, timelines are tightening, and the margin for error is shrinking fast.

For now, markets appear unusually calm. Volatility is muted, risk assets are holding, and there’s little sign of panic. But history suggests this kind of disconnect doesn’t last. When uncertainty builds while prices stay complacent, it often sets the stage for a sharp repricing.

Shutdown threats tend to surface suddenly confidence erodes, liquidity thins, and reactions accelerate once headlines turn definitive. What looks like stability today can quickly become turbulence tomorrow.

This gap between political reality and market pricing is worth watching closely. Calm conditions don’t mean risk is gone they often mean it hasn’t been priced in yet.