Over the past few months, I’ve been watching Bitcoin repeat the same pattern again and again.
Price moves up. Sentiment turns bullish. Targets start spreading everywhere. Everyone starts talking about “the next big breakout.”
And then… rejection.
Bitcoin reaches the same area, fails, and pulls back.
Not once. Not twice. But repeatedly.
This isn’t bad luck. It isn’t manipulation. It’s market structure.
In this post, I want to share how I personally understand this zone, why it keeps rejecting price, and what it tells me about Bitcoin’s next move.
If you zoom out and study higher timeframes, one thing becomes very clear: Bitcoin keeps struggling in the same region. Every time price enters this zone, sellers become active.
BTC Price With Repeated Rejections
On this chart, you can see multiple failed breakouts, long upper wicks, and price falling back quickly. To me, this shows that supply is still stronger than demand in this area. Until that balance changes, real continuation is difficult.
What makes this zone dangerous is that price always looks strong right before it fails.
Green candles appear. Momentum increases. News turns positive. Social media becomes extremely bullish. It feels like “this time is different.”
But in most cases, this strength comes from late buyers rushing in. And late buyers provide liquidity for bigger players to exit. What looks like confidence is often just fuel for selling.
That’s why I never trust price alone. I always look at volume.
Volume Spikes Near Resistance
Here, volume increases exactly when price reaches resistance. But instead of supporting continuation, price gets rejected. This usually means distribution is happening. Smart money is selling into retail demand.
Another important factor is market memory.
Markets remember where people lost money, where breakouts failed, and where strong reactions happened before. Those areas become psychologically important. When price returns, traders who were trapped want to exit. Others want to sell because they missed earlier opportunities. Institutions watch these zones closely.
So selling pressure appears naturally. No conspiracy is needed.
Liquidity also plays a major role.
Large players don’t chase price. They wait for areas where many orders are sitting. These are usually above resistance, near equal highs, and around obvious breakout levels. When price briefly breaks these areas and then reverses, liquidity has already been collected.
That’s why many “fake breakouts” are not fake at all. They are part of the process.
On-chain data often supports this behavior.
Exchange Inflows vs Outflows
Near major resistance, exchange inflows tend to rise. This means coins are being moved to exchanges, often for selling. When I see this, I become more cautious. It tells me supply is increasing.
This zone is also where most traders get trapped emotionally.
FOMO is strongest here. Confidence is highest. Risk is ignored. Discipline disappears. People buy because they’re afraid of missing out. Unfortunately, this is where risk is usually the highest.
I’ve made this mistake myself in the past. It’s part of learning.
Another mistake I see often is focusing too much on small timeframes. On lower charts, everything looks breakable. But higher timeframes control the market.
I always start with weekly and daily structure. If Bitcoin is weak there, short-term breakouts don’t matter.
Repeated rejection doesn’t mean Bitcoin is weak. It means the market is still preparing.
It tells me that sellers are active, supply hasn’t been fully absorbed, and more time is needed. Strong trends are built slowly. They don’t appear overnight.
So around this zone, my mindset changes.
I don’t chase.
I don’t over-leverage.
I reduce exposure.
I wait.
Before I become confident, I want to see strong daily closes above resistance, healthy volume, successful retests, and no instant rejection. Until then, I stay cautious.
Not bearish.
Cautious.
Because there’s a big difference.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s repeated rejection is not random.
It’s structure.
It’s liquidity.
It’s psychology.
It’s experience.
Once you understand this, you stop reacting emotionally. You start reading behavior. And behavior is where real edge comes from.
This is my personal perspective based on observation, mistakes, and continuous learning. The market keeps teaching — if we’re willing to listen.
Respect structure.
Or the market will teach you the hard way.
#BitcoinDunyamiz #Square