On February 4, 2026, the morning session saw spot gold's intraday increase expand to 2%, priced at $5044.585 per ounce. As of 12:15 PM, London gold further rose to $5071.51 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 2.53%.
Price Overview (February 4)
• International Spot (London Gold Spot): $5071.51 per ounce, up 125.27, increase of 2.53%
• Domestic Futures (Shanghai Gold Main Contract): 1135.04 yuan per gram, up 70.94, increase of 6.67%
• Domestic Spot (Gold T+D): 1135.95 yuan per gram, up 60.7, increase of 5.65%
Core Logic of the Rise
1. Dollar Depreciation: The dollar index weakened, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting higher gold prices.
2. Central Bank Gold Purchases: Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, with record gold purchases in 2025; the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 14 consecutive months.
3. Interest Rate Cut Expectations: The market bets on the Federal Reserve entering a rate cut cycle in 2026, which is favorable for non-yielding assets like gold.
4. Safe-Haven Demand: Increased international geopolitical conflicts have led to continued inflows of safe-haven funds into the gold market.
5. Institutional Bullishness: JPMorgan expects gold prices to reach $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026; Goldman Sachs raises its target to $5400 per ounce.
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On February 3rd, in the Asian market, gold and silver made a strong comeback after a sharp drop on February 2nd. London gold at one point rose over 3% to $4800/ounce, and London silver rose nearly 6% to $83/ounce, showing a V-shaped rebound.
Core data (as of February 3rd, 11:00)
• London gold spot: approximately $4775/ounce, up over 2% for the day, with a high of $4829
• London silver spot: approximately $82/ounce, up nearly 5% for the day, with a high of $83.82
• COMEX gold futures: up nearly 4%, surpassing $4800/ounce
• COMEX silver futures: up nearly 8%, with a high of $88/ounce
Reasons for the increase
• Short-term oversold recovery: On February 2nd, gold once dropped 10% to $4400, and silver fell to $71.31, attracting bottom-fishing funds.
• Macroeconomic policy catalyst: Expectations for Fed rate cuts have strengthened, the dollar weakened, and real interest rates declined, reducing holding costs.
• Central bank gold purchases support: The People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 14 consecutive months, and many central banks continue to buy gold, enhancing gold's monetary attributes through de-dollarization.
• Rising geopolitical risks: Conflicts in the Middle East and other regions are boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
• Silver supply-demand mismatch: Industrial demand, such as from photovoltaics, has increased by about 8% annually, while mineral supply has only increased by 2%, leading to five consecutive years of supply shortages.
Market linkage and follow-up
• Global assets are rising, with US stocks and Asia-Pacific stock markets climbing, and cryptocurrencies rising in sync.
• The 30-day volatility of gold exceeds 44%, reaching a new high since the 2008 financial crisis, higher than Bitcoin's 39%.
• Medium to long-term support remains unchanged, but short-term fluctuations may occur due to policy expectations and profit-taking, requiring attention to Fed statements and geopolitical situations.
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