The strong sell-off on January 31st led the crypto market to lose over 200 billion USD in market capitalization, dragging all altcoins into a state of weakness. In this context, ASTER was not spared as it plunged to the 0.507 USD level – the lowest in many months.
Under deep downward pressure, AsterDex has utilized daily platform fees and reserve capital to buy back ASTER to support short-term demand and reinforce the long-term value of the token.
💥Strong buyback, but selling pressure still overwhelms
According to the team's announcement, over the past 4 months they have repurchased a total of more than 248 million ASTER, equivalent to about 137 million USD, accounting for 1.6% of the circulating supply. Specifically, in season 5, the project has spent 24 million USD to buy 38 million ASTER. In the last 24 hours, the buyback amount reached nearly 3 million tokens.
This is a signal indicating the team's commitment to the ecosystem. However, during a period of strong market volatility, the buying power from buybacks is still not enough to balance the selling pressure from investors.
In the derivatives market, Long positions have been heavily liquidated, with a total value reaching approximately 15 million USD – the highest in 3 months. Futures cash flow continues to withdraw, reflecting that the trend of exiting positions is still dominant.
In the spot market, the selling volume in 24 hours exceeded 79 million USD, a rarely seen level in over a month. This indicates that sellers are fully controlling the price movements.
💥Technical signals still lean towards a downward trend
In terms of momentum, ASTER's RSI is around 35 and continues to weaken, approaching an oversold state. This is a sign that sellers still clearly dominate.
Regarding the trend, prices are currently trading below important EMA lines (20, 100, and 200), confirming that the downtrend has not yet ended. When both spot and futures are under selling pressure, the risk of ASTER breaking the support level of 0.5 USD remains present.
In the short term, if the overall market sentiment remains unstable, the potential for a strong recovery is quite limited.
💥What scenario awaits ASTER in the near future?
On the negative side, if selling pressure continues to persist, ASTER could break the 0.5 USD level and extend the adjustment deeper.
Conversely, if the buyback program proves effective and cash flow returns, prices could form a short-term bottom. To confirm a reversal, ASTER needs to rise above EMA 20 and EMA 50, corresponding to the range of 0.64 – 0.73 USD.
👉 Personal viewpoint
AsterDex's continuous token buybacks are a significant positive in terms of long-term commitment. However, in the context of a still unstable market, buybacks only play a role in shock reduction, and are not yet sufficient to create a sustainable upward trend.
Currently, ASTER is still in a high-risk state. Investors should prioritize capital management, avoiding FOMO to catch the bottom when there are no clear confirmation signals from both technical analysis and cash flow.
