Cast aside the illusion of valuation and get to the heart of the real application revolution happening with XPL.
Recently, the market's winds seem to be blowing towards projects with solid fundamentals again. In just 48 hours, XPL surged from a low of $0.1244 to $0.1475, currently sitting at $0.138, with a 12.2% increase stirring a bit of excitement in the dull market. Many people's first reaction is: 'Oversold rebound', 'Technical pullback'. However, as someone who enjoys digging into data and seeing what is really happening on-chain, I believe that behind this fluctuation, there may be some signals more substantial than candlesticks. I want to temporarily set aside the headache of valuation disputes and token unlock schedules and show everyone that, aside from price noise, Plasma itself is accomplishing certain things.
If I were to summarize my recent observations in one word, it would be ‘connection.’ Plasma is no longer just a high-performance but relatively isolated ‘stablecoin-specific chain’; it is embedding itself into broader veins of the crypto economy. A landmark event was undoubtedly the integration with NEAR Intents on January 23 of this year. This is not just an additional cross-chain bridge option. NEAR Intents is an intention-driven cross-chain liquidity protocol that can be understood as a high-speed exchange network covering over 25 mainstream blockchains and aggregating more than 125 types of assets. After the integration, users can now seamlessly exchange assets from any mainstream chain like Ethereum or Solana directly for the native token XPL on the Plasma chain or its core stablecoin USDT0. What does this mean? It means Plasma has transformed from a ‘dead end’ into a key hub within a vast transportation network.
The value of this hub is immediately validated by a key piece of data: in the past 24 hours of cross-chain transactions processed by NEAR Intents, the transaction volume involving Tether (USDT) accounted for as much as 39%. Look, the cross-chain demand for stablecoins is so strong, and Plasma, which is on a mission to provide efficient stablecoin settlements, is now perfectly positioned to offer the smoothest entry and exit. I believe that this value of connection may manifest in the short term as the convenient inflow of speculative funds, thus boosting price activity; in the long term, it introduces a continuous influx of external assets and potential users into the Plasma ecology, a vitality that any closed ecosystem cannot generate on its own.
Merely having connected ‘pipes’ is not enough; there must be ‘living water’ within the pipes. The second positive signal I see is the access to real business scenarios. Recently, a payment processing platform named Confirmo announced the integration of Plasma. This company may not be very eye-catching, but it processes payment flows exceeding $80 million per month. Its integration with Plasma means that merchants using its services can start accepting USDT payments from the Plasma network with zero gas fees. This is no longer a proof of concept in a laboratory, but a real commercial choice. Merchants do not care about the price of XPL; they only care about whether the collection is faster and costs lower. When payment service providers like Confirmo and Rain (which covers over 150 million merchants globally) make Plasma an underlying option, we truly begin to see the budding of the narrative of a ‘payment-specific chain.’
Of course, a healthy financial ecology cannot be separated from the credit market. Let's take a look at the DeFi data on the Plasma chain. One discovery that surprised me is that, according to some aggregated data, the supply/borrowing ratio of stablecoins on the Plasma chain in the Aave V3 lending market is quite high, indicating a strong willingness to deposit stablecoins on the chain, with funds actively seeking interest-earning opportunities. Income-generating asset pools like SyrupUSDT are said to have surpassed $200 million in scale. Furthermore, mainstream DeFi protocols' TVL (Total Value Locked) including Aave, Fluid, and Pendle rank high on the Plasma chain. These data collectively paint a picture: despite the sluggish secondary market prices, a considerable amount of ‘smart money’ has chosen to deposit stablecoins within the Plasma ecology, earning income through lending, providing liquidity, etc. These funds seek stable, predictable on-chain yields, and their retention is a form of ‘voting with their feet’ on the network's infrastructure and economic benefits.
Looking at these points together, I feel that a relatively clear logic line is emerging: solving the ‘how to bring assets in’ problem through NEAR Intents, solving the ‘how to spend stablecoins’ problem through payment processors, and then solving the ‘how to deposit and appreciate funds after they come in’ problem through an active DeFi market. If this cycle can continue to operate and expand in scale, it will be the true cornerstone of Plasma's long-term value.
I do not want to exaggerate these advancements. They are still in the early stages, and the overall network effect is far from formed. The competitive pressure from other public chains and traditional payment giants has not diminished in the slightest. At the same time, the looming sword of Damocles of token unlocks continues to suppress valuations and trigger short-term selling pressure. However, compared to last year’s purely technical slogans revolving around ‘zero fees’ and ‘high performance,’ the current Plasma has at least presented some observable and traceable footprints of commercialization.
So, when we see fluctuations in XPL's price, perhaps we can ask one more question: is it purely an emotional game, or are these real-world connections and application progress beginning to be priced in by some keen market participants? Price is the most direct manifestation of market consensus, but the shift in consensus often begins with those subtle, easily overlooked changes in fundamentals. For Plasma, the real challenge lies in whether these positive ‘connection points’ can be connected to form a line and ultimately weave into an irreplaceable value network.
Price candlesticks depict emotions, while on-chain data tells the story of business. When payment processors connect to a chain for the sake of $80 million in monthly flow, their story is no longer just a vision in the white paper.
NEAR Intents has not built a bridge for Plasma, but rather a universal interface. The flood of assets in the crypto world now has an additional option that leads to the ‘stablecoin settlement layer.’
The tens of billions of dollars deposited in the lending market do not lie; they vote with the simplest logic—wherever returns are stable and efficient, money flows there.
When the market grows tired of ‘speculating on new projects,’ will the spotlight of ‘value reassessment’ shine on XPL?
I wonder if you have noticed that there is a kind of ‘aesthetic fatigue’ permeating the recent crypto market. The endless new narratives and ever-changing meme coins seem increasingly unable to ignite sustained passion. On the contrary, some long-dormant established projects, even those regarded as ‘relics of the previous cycle,’ occasionally emerge with eye-catching performances. This inevitably leads me to ponder a possible trend shift that may be occurring: is the market moving from a fervor for ‘speculating on new stories’ to ‘reassessing old values’? If so, will projects like XPL, which have solid fundamentals but have dropped over 90% from their peaks, enter the candidate list for this value reassessment?
Let's first look at some interesting precedents. At the end of last year, when the overall market was weak, a batch of established projects like ZEC (Zcash), ICP (Internet Computer), and FIL (Filecoin) surged against the trend, with a monthly average increase of over 55%. Cointelegraph interpreted this as a structural signal of the market shifting from ‘speculating on new projects’ to ‘reassessing old values.’ What do these projects have in common? Most of them possess a technology stack that has been validated over the long term (and has endured harsh tests), relatively mature communities and governance structures, and have continued to upgrade their technology or found a ‘second narrative curve’ that combines with new trends like AI and DePIN during the bear market. Market funds seem to be indicating through their actions that, in the absence of new explosive points, projects that are more transparent in risk, have severely compressed valuations, but still have ongoing development and ecological progress, possess a kind of ‘hedging’ attribute.
So, does XPL fit this ‘established value reassessment’ image? I think we can look at it from several dimensions. First is the qualitative aspect of ‘established.’ Plasma is not a completely new concept that appeared out of nowhere. It is supported by well-known investors like Peter Thiel and Tether, and has been operational since its mainnet launch in 2025, experiencing both market enthusiasm and subsequent deep corrections. Its core narrative of being a ‘Layer 1 born for stablecoins’ has long been known in the market and is not an untested new story. From this perspective, it shares similarities with those older projects being re-evaluated—the story is not new, but the framework still stands.
Secondly, the anchor point of ‘value.’ For a project to be ‘reassessed,’ it must have an assessable value foundation. For XPL, aside from the token price, its value anchor points have at least three: technical value (validated sub-second finality and zero gas fee transfer architecture), ecological value (stablecoin TVL at the billion level and active DeFi protocols), and connection value (integration with key infrastructures such as NEAR Intents). These are not castles in the air but are facts that are operating and can be partially verified by on-chain data. When market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, these values may be completely overlooked; but when the wind shifts, they will become the starting point for valuation repair.
Looking at the catalysts for ‘reassessment,’ the explosion of old projects often requires new story elements or milestone events. For XPL, recent catalysts may be the deep integration with NEAR Intents mentioned earlier and the landing of payment scenarios like Confirmo. These advancements give the narrative of a ‘stablecoin-specific chain’ a stronger interconnectedness and practicality, which can be seen as an ‘upgrade patch’ for its core story. At the same time, it is worth noting that the entire crypto market's ‘fear and greed index’ was once in the ‘extreme fear’ zone. Historical experience shows that this kind of extreme market sentiment itself often forms the soil for the establishment of mid- to long-term value vacuums, providing psychological space for future ‘reassessment.’
However, I must emphasize that discussing ‘value reassessment’ does not equate to advocating for an immediate surge. This road is fraught with thorns. The biggest obstacle is undoubtedly its token economic structure. A total supply of up to 10 billion and the ongoing unlocking plan are the ‘sword of supply’ hanging over XPL's valuation. Any improvement in fundamentals requires sufficiently strong demand growth to offset the continuous potential selling pressure. In addition, the stablecoin payment track itself is a red ocean, and the first-mover advantages and ecological depth of competitors like Ethereum L2 and Solana are the harsh realities that Plasma must face.
So, my view is that observing XPL from the perspective of the structural shift of ‘valuing established projects’ is more meaningful. This helps us to escape the short-term anxiety of ‘is it up or down today’ and think about a more fundamental question: in a gradually maturing market, will funds give more patience and attention to projects with real technological progress, ecological construction, and severely discounted valuations? This is not just a problem for XPL alone, but a subtle evolution that the entire crypto investment logic may be experiencing.
For XPL, a short-term rebound of 12% may just be noise. However, its recent pragmatic progress in connectivity (cross-chain) and applicability (payments) is indeed a solid step towards consolidating its fundamental value. Market value reassessment is never a one-time event; it requires time, continuous accumulation of positive news, and more importantly, coordination with the macro market environment. It is still too early to say that XPL has welcomed a 'golden pit,' but at least it makes me feel that the story of this project is not yet finished. It is slowly returning from a noisy capital feast to a marathon about payment efficiency, ecological construction, and long-term survival capacity.
When the market grows tired of overwhelming new stories, it will turn back to weigh those forgotten old blueprints. The reassessment of value often begins with the return of attention.
The unlocking timetable is a mathematical problem written in the white paper, while the vitality of the ecology and the value of connection are psychological questions that the market votes on with funds. The latter is the key to determining long-term pricing.@Plasma #Plasma $XPL
🔔ps: Dear ones, that’s all for today regarding plasma. The above solely represents my personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. Some data and information are sourced from the internet; if there are any discrepancies, please contact me for timely correction. Thank you 🥹
