$RIVER Smart money data depicts a strange picture: the market is at the dangerous edge of "consistent profitability".
Data shows that over 90% of smart money bulls are enjoying doubled profits, with an average cost of $37 corresponding to the current price of $73, with unrealized gains approaching 100%. Meanwhile, the average cost for bears is only $14, yet over 20% of holders continue to hold on after the price surged five times.
There exists a fatal contradiction:
If the bears are rational, they should have recognized their losses and exited given such a massive increase. But they haven't. This suggests two possibilities: either this group of bears possesses undisclosed negative information, firmly believing that the current price is an absurd bubble; or they have strong financial patience, waiting for a reversal in market sentiment.
A long-short ratio close to 500% is an explicit danger signal—when over 80% of market participants are profiting in the same direction, it often means that the momentum in that direction has been exhausted. It will be difficult to find new buyers to absorb the selling pressure from profit-taking.
The most likely evolution path ahead:
Profit-taking will begin to loosen up, especially among the heavily positioned whale group. Their sell-off will trigger a chain reaction, leading to a significant price correction. During this process, those low-cost bears will have a chance to breathe; they may take the opportunity to close part of their profits or continue to increase their positions while waiting for a deeper correction.
The market always repeats the same pattern: when profitability becomes too easy and too common, risks are often quietly approaching. The current smart money data from RIVER is clearly pointing to this critical point. $RIVER
