Bitcoin prices are stagnant. BTC has seen little change over the past 24 hours and has dropped about 6% over the past week. While there appears to be no significant movement on the surface, four dangerous signals have begun to light up simultaneously behind the scenes. A bearish pattern is forming on the charts. The selling pace of long-term holders is accelerating. Demand for ETFs has become the weakest in weeks since November. And instead of long-term holders selling, it is primarily short-term speculative participants who are buying.
No single signal will cause the market to collapse. However, their overlap suggests that Bitcoin is losing confidence at critical levels.
A bearish pattern emerges as momentum slows down.
On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a head and shoulders pattern. This pattern indicates a decrease in upward momentum, with each upward phase gradually making lower highs. The neckline is around $86,430.
If the price breaks below this neckline, the measured decline is expected to be about 9-10%.
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Momentum supports this risk. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has turned downward and is approaching the 50-period EMA. The EMA emphasizes recent price fluctuations and indicates trend direction. If a bearish crossover occurs, sellers may find it easier to push prices down further.
As this weakening structure combines with holder behavior, caution increases.
Long-term holders are accelerating sales due to softened positions.
Long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for over a year are intensifying selling pressure.
On January 21, long-term holders sold (outflow) approximately 75,950 BTC. This number surged to about 122,486 BTC on the following day, marking a dramatic acceleration of about 61% in one day, differing from a gradual sell-off.
This sell-off is not due to fear but stems from a waning confidence in strong price rises. The long-term holder NUPL metric, indicating unrealized profits and losses, has fallen to its lowest level in six months but remains in the confidence zone. Holders are still in a situation of profit.
In other words, this is a voluntary sell-off, a position reduction for risk aversion. When holders with strong convictions sell, the attributes of buyers affect the market. The increase in supply from long-term holdings has also been pointed out by experts on social media.
Demand for Bitcoin ETFs slows down as speculative players flow in.
Bitcoin's spot ETF recorded the weakest week in 2026, with weekly demand being the weakest since November.
In the week ending January 21, the ETF saw a net sell of approximately $1.19 billion. This indicates that the stable demand that had absorbed sellers during previous adjustment phases has vanished. Thus, ETF investors also currently lack confidence in BTC prices.
On the other hand, in the Hodler Wave (supply ratio by holding period), the proportion of speculative participants is increasing. The supply share of the group holding for 1 week to 1 month has risen from about 4.6% on January 11 to approximately 5.6% now, marking an increase of about 22% in a short period.
The significance of this point lies in the fact that these holders primarily buy during downturns and sell during rebounds. It will not provide long-term support.
Currently, Bitcoin is transitioning from long-term holders and ETFs to short-term traders. This change tends to cap upward movement and increase downside risk.
Key Bitcoin price levels influencing risk expansion.
Four risksâtechnical factors, selling by long-term holders, ETF weakness, and inflow of speculative fundsâare currently converging into a narrow price range.
If we expect higher prices, Bitcoin needs to close clearly above $90,340 on the 12-hour chart (the right shoulder up). If it surpasses $92,300 again, it will recover an important moving average line and lead to a more significant development.
Until then, the downward trend will continue.
On the downside, if it breaks below $86,430, the collapse of the head and shoulders will be confirmed. If the acceleration of long-term holder sales, the sluggish demand for ETFs, and the dominance of speculative buyers continue, a rapid decline may occur along with a break of support.
