The HBAR price is attempting to stabilize but the momentum of the rebound is weakening. Since January 20, the token has risen about 7%, but it has fallen nearly 8% in the past 7 days. More importantly, the structure supporting the upward breakout has started to weaken beneath the surface.
Currently, the W-shaped recovery pattern is being maintained. However, the flow of funds, sentiment, and whale movements are in a situation that is insufficient for a clean continuation of the rise.
Early concerns about the breakout structure due to sluggish fund inflow
The HBAR price is still fluctuating within a W pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is formed when the price drops to the same level twice and buying occurs twice. If HBAR breaks above the neckline at $0.135, the breakout theory will be valid.
The question is what is happening within this pattern.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned downward. The CMF is an indicator that tracks whether large capital (institutional investors, ETFs, whales) is flowing in and out of assets using price and volume. During rebound phases, it temporarily exceeded zero, indicating new capital inflows, but that signal has now disappeared.
The CMF has fallen below zero again and is approaching the upward trendline it has maintained since the end of December. This suggests that funds have started to flow out of Hedera despite HBAR not yet breaking below support.
Technical analysis of tokens and the latest market information: If you wish for more detailed insights, please subscribe to the newsletter delivered daily by editor Harush Notariya. Here.
Whale movements also support a cautious stance. All large holder groups are maintaining their holdings, but new purchases have hardly been seen during the decline. Typically, if whales expect a breakout, they aggressively accumulate during weak moments.
Whale hesitation indicates more uncertainty than confidence. Furthermore, if the CMF breaks below the trendline, the next outflow of funds could come from whales.
Maintaining $0.102 through buying on dips, but sentiment has sharply dropped
Despite the weakening of fund flow, the HBAR price has not yet collapsed. The reason is buying on dips.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a representative indicator of buying on dips, but since the end of December, it has shown an upward trend even as prices have been soft. The MFI indicates buying and selling pressure based on price and volume. This bullish divergence suggests that buying on dips is occurring rather than panic selling. This behavior is what has kept the support level at $0.102 intact multiple times.
However, buying on dips alone cannot sustain a breakout if trust diminishes. This is especially true if whales in Hedera have not been buying during the decline.
Market sentiment has deteriorated rapidly. Since January 19, positive sentiment has plummeted from about 29 to 1.5, a drop of over 94% in just a few days, reaching the lowest level this month.
This is an important point. Earlier this month, sentiment affected prices. From January 6 to 12, positive sentiment fell from 20.8 to nearly 10.4. During the same period, HBAR dropped approximately 14% from $0.132 to $0.114.
This sentiment drop is more severe than the previous one. If this relationship continues, the selling pressure could surge once the buying on dips participants exit or CMF outflows exceed that support. Additionally, there is a risk that passive whales could use such sentiment swings as selling materials.
Key price levels that will determine HBAR's future
Currently, all trends are fluctuating within a very narrow range.
If the HBAR price maintains $0.102 at the daily closing price, the W pattern will remain technically valid. However, if it clearly breaks below this level, the pattern will become invalid, initially posing a risk of decline to $0.094. If selling pressure increases, $0.073 will become a realistic lower target.
On the other hand, a shift to an upward trend requires a change in behavior patterns. The CMF needs to recover above the zero line, sentiment must stabilize, and the price must regain the zone between $0.118 and $0.124. Without such changes, the neckline at $0.135 remains distant, and the 31% breakout expectation will not be realized.
Currently, the HBAR price is being maintained, but the momentum for a breakout is weakening. If fund outflows continue and sentiment remains unstable, the $0.102 level will not be a support but rather a final test.
