The price of Onyx Coin has surged by about 52% in the past 24 hours, with a 7-day increase exceeding 100%. The key question raised by such a rapid movement is whether it is a short squeeze driven by leverage or a move based on actual demand.
At this point, there is much data suggesting it is the latter. While the volatility remains high, multiple indicators show that this rise is not accidental. Both trading volume, capital flow, and the positions in derivatives suggest that the market is active but not overheated. Below is the actual situation shown by the charts.
Trend breakout and volume confirm buying support
XCN's breakout surpassed all exponential moving averages, but it was not an isolated event. On the daily chart, XCN broke through a key resistance level, suggesting the potential for a bullish EMA crossover.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) smooth price data by assigning greater weight to recent movements. When the 20-day EMA approaches and crosses above the 50-day EMA, it often signals increasing trend strength. XCN is currently approaching such a crossover, which would serve as evidence that the overall trend is turning upward.
This trend is supported by trading volume. On-Balance Volume (OBV) is an indicator that measures whether funds are flowing into or out of an asset, and it has broken above the long-standing downtrend line. The fact that OBV is rising alongside price indicates the entry of strong, determined buyers, suggesting this is not merely due to forced liquidations.
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The recent candlesticks also have long upper and lower wicks. This indicates active participation from both buyers and sellers, suggesting that prices are maintaining a high level.
When combining the EMA setup with the OBV breakout, it can be interpreted that this rally is supported not just by short-term speculation, but also by demand in the spot market.
Capital inflows suggest continued upward momentum, not yet reaching ceiling levels
To identify the entry of larger investors, both price and money flow are important.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator measures whether funds are flowing into or out of an asset. When CMF is above the zero line, it indicates net buying pressure. For XCN, CMF maintained an upward trend even during the price decline from October last year to early this year.
This divergence is significant. It shows that funds were quietly flowing in even during the downtrend. Now that prices have broken higher, and CMF remains at a high level, it strengthens the view that this rally is underpinned by real demand, not just momentum chasing.
The simultaneous rise in price, OBV, and CMF reduces the likelihood of a so-called 'bull trap.' Typically, when a strong rally stalls, volume and money flow weaken—but there are no such signs at present.
Derivatives and XCN price movements will shape the future
Leverage-driven rallies are prone to collapse quickly when positions become overly one-sided. However, XCN is currently not in such a situation.
Looking at the perpetual futures liquidation map for XCN, leverage on both short and long positions is balanced. Total short liquidations amount to approximately $1.58 million, while long liquidations are around $1.36 million—neither side is significantly skewed. This balance helps mitigate the risk of sudden short squeezes or sharp reversals, indicating that the market remains orderly.
Going forward, attention will shift to price levels.
XCN price is currently challenging resistance near $0.0095 (after two previous pullbacks). If this level is clearly broken and sustained, upside potential could extend to $0.0110, as indicated by Fibonacci extensions—about a 21% rise from current levels.
On the downside, maintaining above $0.0084 is crucial. If this level is lost, prices could drop sharply to $0.0074. Particular caution is needed if a long squeeze occurs. Nevertheless, as long as volume and money flow do not significantly weaken, this should be seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal.
After a 2x increase within a week, caution is natural. Currently, the XCN chart shows support from this recent momentum. Whether further upside remains depends not on how far prices have risen so far, but on price action near resistance levels. The key to XCN's potential for a significant further rise lies at its current level of $0.0095.